Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States.

To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons. Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons.

Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States.

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, R. This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific R values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population.

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah).

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020.