Coupled infectious disease and behavior dynamics. A review of model assumptions.

To comprehend the dynamics of infectious disease transmission, it is imperative to incorporate human protective behavior into models of disease spreading. While models exist for both infectious disease and behavior dynamics independently, the integration of these aspects has yet to yield a cohesive body of literature. Such an integration is crucial for gaining insights into phenomena like the rise of infodemics, the polarization of opinions regarding vaccines, and the dissemination of conspiracy theories during a pandemic.

Signatures of hierarchical temporal processing in the mouse visual system.

A core challenge for the brain is to process information across various timescales. This could be achieved by a hierarchical organization of temporal processing through intrinsic mechanisms (e.g.

Early mutational signatures and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma and Lambda variants in Chile.

Genomic surveillance (GS) programmes were crucial in identifying and quantifying the mutating patterns of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this work, we develop a Bayesian framework to quantify the relative transmissibility of different variants tailored for regions with limited GS. We use it to study the relative transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Chile.

Information-theoretic analyses of neural data to minimize the effect of researchers' assumptions in predictive coding studies.

Studies investigating neural information processing often implicitly ask both, which processing strategy out of several alternatives is used and how this strategy is implemented in neural dynamics. A prime example are studies on predictive coding. These often ask whether confirmed predictions about inputs or prediction errors between internal predictions and inputs are passed on in a hierarchical neural system-while at the same time looking for the neural correlates of coding for errors and predictions.

Propagation of activity through the cortical hierarchy and perception are determined by neural variability.

Brains are composed of anatomically and functionally distinct regions performing specialized tasks, but regions do not operate in isolation. Orchestration of complex behaviors requires communication between brain regions, but how neural dynamics are organized to facilitate reliable transmission is not well understood. Here we studied this process directly by generating neural activity that propagates between brain regions and drives behavior, assessing how neural populations in sensory cortex cooperate to transmit information.

Modular architecture facilitates noise-driven control of synchrony in neuronal networks.

High-level information processing in the mammalian cortex requires both segregated processing in specialized circuits and integration across multiple circuits. One possible way to implement these seemingly opposing demands is by flexibly switching between states with different levels of synchrony. However, the mechanisms behind the control of complex synchronization patterns in neuronal networks remain elusive.

Evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using simulation-assisted causal modeling.

We develop a model to retrospectively evaluate age-dependent counterfactual vaccine allocation strategies against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To estimate the effect of allocation on the expected severe-case incidence, we employ a simulation-assisted causal modeling approach that combines a compartmental infection-dynamics simulation, a coarse-grained causal model, and literature estimates for immunity waning. We compare Israel's strategy, implemented in 2021, with counterfactual strategies such as no prioritization, prioritization of younger age groups, or a strict risk-ranked approach; we find that Israel's implemented strategy was indeed highly effective.

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations.

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022.

Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19.

Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro 2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of gatherings on the spread of COVID-19, as the number and dates of matches played by participating countries resembles a randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling and the gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95% CI: [0.39M, 1.

Neurodegenerative disease of the brain: a survey of interdisciplinary approaches.

Neurodegenerative diseases of the brain pose a major and increasing global health challenge, with only limited progress made in developing effective therapies over the last decade. Interdisciplinary research is improving understanding of these diseases and this article reviews such approaches, with particular emphasis on tools and techniques drawn from physics, chemistry, artificial intelligence and psychology.

Where is the error? Hierarchical predictive coding through dendritic error computation.

Top-down feedback in cortex is critical for guiding sensory processing, which has prominently been formalized in the theory of hierarchical predictive coding (hPC). However, experimental evidence for error units, which are central to the theory, is inconclusive and it remains unclear how hPC can be implemented with spiking neurons. To address this, we connect hPC to existing work on efficient coding in balanced networks with lateral inhibition and predictive computation at apical dendrites.

Sampling effects and measurement overlap can bias the inference of neuronal avalanches.

To date, it is still impossible to sample the entire mammalian brain with single-neuron precision. This forces one to either use spikes (focusing on few neurons) or to use coarse-sampled activity (averaging over many neurons, e.g.

Visuomotor Mismatch Responses as a Hallmark of Explaining Away in Causal Inference.

How are visuomotor mismatch responses in primary visual cortex embedded into cortical processing? We here show that mismatch responses can be understood as the result of a cooperation of motor and visual areas to jointly explain optic flow. This cooperation requires that optic flow is not explained redundantly by both areas, meaning that optic flow inputs to V1 that are predictable from motor neurons should be canceled (i.e.

α-Synuclein Impacts on Intrinsic Neuronal Network Activity Through Reduced Levels of Cyclic AMP and Diminished Numbers of Active Presynaptic Terminals.

α-synuclein (α-Syn) is intimately linked to synucleinopathies like Parkinson's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies. However, the pathophysiological mechanisms that are triggered by this protein are still largely enigmatic. α-Syn overabundance may cause neurodegeneration through protein accumulation and mitochondrial deterioration but may also result in pathomechanisms independent from neuronal cell death.

Early lock-in of structured and specialised information flows during neural development.

The brains of many organisms are capable of complicated distributed computation underpinned by a highly advanced information processing capacity. Although substantial progress has been made towards characterising the information flow component of this capacity in mature brains, there is a distinct lack of work characterising its emergence during neural development. This lack of progress has been largely driven by the lack of effective estimators of information processing operations for spiking data.

The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy.

In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels.

Local dendritic balance enables learning of efficient representations in networks of spiking neurons.

How can neural networks learn to efficiently represent complex and high-dimensional inputs via local plasticity mechanisms? Classical models of representation learning assume that feedforward weights are learned via pairwise Hebbian-like plasticity. Here, we show that pairwise Hebbian-like plasticity works only under unrealistic requirements on neural dynamics and input statistics. To overcome these limitations, we derive from first principles a learning scheme based on voltage-dependent synaptic plasticity rules.

Elimination versus mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of effective vaccines.

There is increasing evidence that elimination strategies have resulted in better outcomes for public health, the economy, and civil liberties than have mitigation strategies throughout the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. With vaccines that offer high protection against severe forms of COVID-19, and increasing vaccination coverage, policy makers have had to reassess the trade-offs between different options. The desirability and feasibility of eliminating SARS-CoV-2 compared with other strategies should also be re-evaluated from the perspective of different fields, including epidemiology, public health, and economics.

Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns.

The traditional long-term solutions for epidemic control involve eradication or population immunity. Here, we analytically derive the existence of a third viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where test-trace-and-isolate policies partially compensate for local spreading events and only moderate restrictions remain necessary. In this equilibrium, daily cases stabilize around ten or fewer new infections per million people.