Probability of informed trading during the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of the Romanian stock market.

Using data from the Bucharest Stock Exchange, we examine the factors influencing the probability of informed trading (PIN) during February-October 2020, a COVID-19 pandemic period. Based on an unconditional quantile regression approach, we show that PIN exhibit asymmetric dependency with liquidity and trading costs. Furthermore, building a customized database that contains all insider transactions on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, we reveal that these types of orders monotonically increase the information asymmetry from the 50th to the 90th quantile throughout the PIN distribution.