Towards pandemic preparedness: ability to estimate high-resolution social contact patterns from longitudinal surveys.

Social contact surveys are an important tool to assess infection risks within populations, and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on social behaviour during disease outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. Numerous longitudinal social contact surveys were conducted during the COVID-19 era, however data analysis is plagued by reporting fatigue, a phenomenon whereby the average number of social contacts reported declines with the number of repeat participations and as participants' engagement decreases over time. Using data from the German COVIMOD Study between April 2020 to December 2021, we demonstrate that reporting fatigue varied considerably by sociodemographic factors and was consistently strongest among parents reporting children contacts (parental proxy reporting), students, middle-aged individuals, those in full-time employment and those self-employed.

Estimating the relative importance of epidemiological and behavioural parameters for epidemic mpox transmission: a modelling study.

Background: Many European countries experienced outbreaks of mpox in 2022, and there was an mpox outbreak in 2023 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. There were many apparent differences between these outbreaks and previous outbreaks of mpox; the recent outbreaks were observed in men who have sex with men after sexual encounters at common events, whereas earlier outbreaks were observed in a wider population with no identifiable link to sexual contacts. These apparent differences meant that data from previous outbreaks could not reliably be used to parametrise infectious disease models during the 2022 and 2023 mpox outbreaks, and modelling efforts were hampered by uncertainty around key transmission and immunity parameters.

The impact of inaccurate assumptions about antibody test accuracy on the parametrisation and results of infectious disease models of epidemics.

The parametrisation of infectious disease models is often done based on epidemiological studies that use diagnostic and serology tests to establish disease prevalence or seroprevalence in the population being modelled. During outbreaks of an emerging infectious disease, tests are often used, both for disease control and epidemiological studies, before studies evaluating their accuracy in the population have concluded, with assumptions made about accuracy parameters like sensitivity and specificity. In this simulation study, we simulated such an outbreak, based on the case study of COVID-19, and found that inaccurate parametrisation of infectious disease models due to assumptions about antibody test accuracy in a seroprevalence study can cause modelling results that inform public health decisions to be inaccurate; for example, in our simulation setup, assuming that antibody test specificity was 0.

Effect of SARS-CoV-2 Incidence and Immunisation Rates on Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Incidence.

Background: Recent case studies and media outlets have hypothesised an effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection and immunisation on the development or progression of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease or sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD).

Objectives: This study aims to identify potential associations of SARS-CoV-2 infections and SARS-CoV-2 immunisation with sCJD incidence, disease duration, and age of onset.

Method: We used data from a prospective sCJD surveillance study in Germany (2016-2022) and publicly available datasets of SARS-CoV-2 cases and vaccination numbers in Germany for the years 2020-2022.

Bridging the gap - estimation of 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel.

Objectives: Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany like other countries lacked adaptive population-based panels to monitor the spread of epidemic diseases.

Methods: To fill a gap in population-based estimates needed for winter 2022/23 we resampled in the German SARS-CoV-2 cohort study MuSPAD in mid-2022, including characterization of systemic cellular and humoral immune responses by interferon-γ-release assay (IGRA) and CLIA/IVN assay. We were able to confirm categorization of our study population into four groups with differing protection levels against severe COVID-19 courses based on literature synthesis.

Estimating fine age structure and time trends in human contact patterns from coarse contact data: The Bayesian rate consistency model.

Since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), large-scale social contact surveys are now longitudinally measuring the fundamental changes in human interactions in the face of the pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here, we present a model-based Bayesian approach that can reconstruct contact patterns at 1-year resolution even when the age of the contacts is reported coarsely by 5 or 10-year age bands. This innovation is rooted in population-level consistency constraints in how contacts between groups must add up, which prompts us to call the approach presented here the Bayesian rate consistency model.

Social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 21 European countries - evidence from a two-year study.

Background: Most countries have enacted some restrictions to reduce social contacts to slow down disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic. For nearly two years, individuals likely also adopted new behaviours to avoid pathogen exposure based on personal circumstances. We aimed to understand the way in which different factors affect social contacts - a critical step to improving future pandemic responses.

Effect of risk status for severe COVID-19 on individual contact behaviour during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020/2021-an analysis based on the German COVIMOD study.

Background: One of the primary aims of contact restriction measures during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been to protect people at increased risk of severe disease from the virus. Knowledge about the uptake of contact restriction measures in this group is critical for public health decision-making. We analysed data from the German contact survey COVIMOD to assess differences in contact patterns based on risk status, and compared this to pre-pandemic data to establish whether there was a differential response to contact reduction measures.

Native liver survival in bile salt export pump deficiency: results of a retrospective cohort study.

Background: Bile salt export pump (ABCB11) deficiency [Progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis (PFIC2)] is the most common genetic cause of PFIC and is associated with pruritus and progressive liver disease. Surgical biliary diversion or pharmacological [ileal bile acid transporter inhibitor (IBATi)] approaches can be used to block the recirculation of bile acids to the liver. There is a paucity of detailed data on the natural history and, in particular, the longitudinal evolution of bile acid levels to predict treatment response.

The Impact of Thrombophilic Factors on Disease Progression in Children with Biliary Atresia-A Single-Centre Cohort Study.

Epidemiological evidence suggests that thrombophilic factors, including male sex, non-O blood type, MTHFRnt677TT mutation, factor V Leiden G1691A mutation, and prothrombin G20210A polymorphism, may contribute to the progression of fibrosis and occurrence of portal vein thrombosis in liver disease. We retrospectively investigated the effect of potentially thrombophilic factors on native liver survival as a patient-relevant endpoint of disease progression in a cohort of 142 children being followed up for biliary atresia at Hannover Medical School from April 2017 to October 2019. No significant association could be determined.

Diagnosing Acute Cellular Rejection after Paediatric Liver Transplantation-Is There Room for Interleukin Profiles?

Background: The current gold standard to diagnose T-cell-mediated acute rejection (TCMR) requires liver histology. Using data from the ChilSFree study on immune response after paediatric liver transplantation (pLT), we aimed to assess whether soluble cytokines can serve as an alternative diagnostic tool in children suspected to have TCMR.

Methods: A total of n = 53 blood samples obtained on the day of or up to 3 days before liver biopsy performed for suspected TCMR at median 18 days (range 7-427) after pLT in n = 50 children (38% female, age at pLT 1.

Age-specific contribution of contacts to transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany.

Current estimates of pandemic SARS-CoV-2 spread in Germany using infectious disease models often do not use age-specific infection parameters and are not always based on age-specific contact matrices of the population. They also do usually not include setting- or pandemic phase-based information from epidemiological studies of reported cases and do not account for age-specific underdetection of reported cases. Here, we report likely pandemic spread using an age-structured model to understand the age- and setting-specific contribution of contacts to transmission during different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.

Long-term persistence of antibodies after diphtheria/tetanus vaccination in immunosuppressed patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases and healthy controls.

Many vaccines demonstrate high effectiveness for years. This prospective multicentre study was conducted in Switzerland to assess the long-term persistence of antibodies to the diphtheria/tetanus (dT)-vaccine in adult patients with rheumatic diseases (PRDs). 163 PRDs and 169 controls were included in the study.

Negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR or rapid antigen test result and the subsequent risk of being infectious: a mathematical simulation study.

Background: A considerable proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs from asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases. Therefore, different polymerase chain reaction (PCR)- or rapid antigen test (RAT)-based approaches are being discussed and applied to identify infectious individuals that would have otherwise gone undetected. In this article, we provide a framework to estimate the time-dependent risk of being infectious after a negative SARS-CoV-2 test, and we simulate the number of expected infectious individuals over time in populations who initially tested negative.

Discontinuation of biologic DMARDs in a real-world population of patients with rheumatoid arthritis in remission: outcome and risk factors.

Objectives: Data from randomized controlled trials have shown the feasibility of discontinuation of bDMARD therapy in patients with RA that have reached remission. Criteria for selecting patients that are likely to remain in remission are still incompletely defined. We aimed to identify predictors of successful discontinuation of bDMARD therapy in the Swiss Clinical Quality Management (SCQM) registry, a real-world cohort of RA patients.

Impact of assessing patient-reported outcomes with mobile apps on patient-provider interaction.

Objective: To explore the effect of apps measuring patient-reported outcomes (PROs) on patient-provider interaction in the rheumatic diseases in an observational setting.

Methods: Patients in the Swiss Clinical Quality Management in Rheumatic Diseases Registry were offered mobile apps (iDialog and COmPASS) to track disease status between rheumatology visits using validated PROs (Rheumatoid Arthritis Disease Activity Index-5 score, Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index score, Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data-3 score and Visual Analogue Scale score for pain, disease activity and skin symptoms). We assessed two aspects of patient-provider interaction: shared decision making (SDM) and physician awareness of disease fluctuations.

Systemic sclerosis in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review.

Systematic studies on connective tissue disorders are scarce in sub-Saharan Africa. Our aim was to analyse the published clinical data on systemic sclerosis (SSc) in sub-Saharan Africa. A systematic review was carried out in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines.

Safety and immunogenicity of a primary yellow fever vaccination under low-dose methotrexate therapy-a prospective multi-centre pilot study1.

Background: More people on immunosuppression live in or wish to travel to yellow fever virus (YFV)-endemic areas. Data on the safety and immunogenicity of yellow fever vaccination (YFVV) during immunosuppression are scarce. The aim of this study was to compare the safety and immunogenicity of a primary YFVV between travellers on methotrexate and controls.

Risk estimation for air travel-induced malaria transmission in central Europe - A mathematical modelling study.

Background: Aim of our study was to identify conditions under which malaria transmission caused by imported infectious mosquitoes or travellers could occur at large central European airports, and if such transmission could be sustained by indigenous mosquitoes.

Methods: We developed a deterministic and a stochastic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (humans)/Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious (mosquitoes) model with two mosquito (imported Anopheles gambiae, indigenous A. plumbeus) and three human (travellers, airport personnel exposed/not exposed to imported A.