Transformation starts at the periphery of networks where pushback is less.

Complex systems ranging from societies to ecological communities and power grids may be viewed as networks of connected elements. Such systems can go through critical transitions driven by an avalanche of contagious change. Here we ask, where in a complex network such a systemic shift is most likely to start.

Unveiling functional linkages between habitats and organisms: Macroalgal habitats as influential factors of fish functional traits.

Understanding the relationship between the characteristics of habitats and their associated community is essential to comprehend the functioning of ecological systems and prevent their degradation. This is particularly relevant for in decline, habitat-forming species, such as macroalgae, which support diverse communities of fish in temperate rocky reefs. To understand the link between the functional habitats of macroalgae and the functional dimension of their associated fish communities, we used a standardized underwater visual census to quantify the macroalgal functional diversity, as well as the functional diversity, redundancy, and richness of fish communities in 400 sites scattered in three southern temperate marine realms.

Early-warning signals of impending speciation.

Species formation is a central topic in biology, and a large body of theoretical work has explored the conditions under which speciation occurs, including whether speciation dynamics are gradual or abrupt. In some cases of abrupt speciation, differentiation slowly builds up until it reaches a threshold, at which point linkage disequilibrium (LD) and divergent selection enter a positive feedback loop that triggers accelerated change. Notably, such abrupt transitions powered by a positive feedback have also been observed in a range of other systems.

Evolutionary emergence of alternative stable states in shallow lakes.

Ecosystems under stress may respond abruptly and irreversibly through tipping points. Although mechanisms leading to alternative stable states are much studied, little is known about how such ecosystems could have emerged in the first place. We investigate whether evolution by natural selection along resource gradients leads to bistability, using shallow lakes as an example.

Anticipating the occurrence and type of critical transitions.

Critical transition can occur in many real-world systems. The ability to forecast the occurrence of transition is of major interest in a range of contexts. Various early warning signals (EWSs) have been developed to anticipate the coming critical transition or distinguish types of transition.

Predicting effects of multiple interacting global change drivers across trophic levels.

Global change encompasses many co-occurring anthropogenic drivers, which can act synergistically or antagonistically on ecological systems. Predicting how different global change drivers simultaneously contribute to observed biodiversity change is a key challenge for ecology and conservation. However, we lack the mechanistic understanding of how multiple global change drivers influence the vital rates of multiple interacting species.

Ranking species based on sensitivity to perturbations under non-equilibrium community dynamics.

Managing ecological communities requires fast detection of species that are sensitive to perturbations. Yet, the focus on recovery to equilibrium has prevented us from assessing species responses to perturbations when abundances fluctuate over time. Here, we introduce two data-driven approaches (expected sensitivity and eigenvector rankings) based on the time-varying Jacobian matrix to rank species over time according to their sensitivity to perturbations on abundances.

Using functional indicators to detect state changes in terrestrial ecosystems.

Indicators to predict ecosystem state change are urgently needed to cope with the degradation of ecosystem services caused by global change. With the development of new technologies for measuring ecosystem function with fine spatiotemporal resolution over broad areas, we are in the era of 'big data'. However, it is unclear how large, emerging datasets can be used to anticipate ecosystem state change.

Regime shifts, trends, and variability of lake productivity at a global scale.

Lakes are often described as sentinels of global change. Phenomena like lake eutrophication, algal blooms, or reorganization in community composition belong to the most studied ecosystem regime shifts. However, although regime shifts have been well documented in several lakes, a global assessment of the prevalence of regime shifts is still missing, and, more in general, of the factors altering stability in lake status, is missing.

Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change.

Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience). Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience, yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators, has changed during the period 2000-2020.

Interaction fidelity is less common than expected in plant-pollinator communities.

Pairs of plants and pollinators species sometimes consistently interact throughout time and across space. Such consistency can be interpreted as a sign of interaction fidelity, that is a consistent interaction between two species when they co-occur in the same place. But how common interaction fidelity is and what determines interaction fidelity in plant-pollinator communities remain open questions.

Adaptive Evolution Can Both Prevent Ecosystem Collapse and Delay Ecosystem Recovery.

AbstractThere is growing concern about the dire socioecological consequences of abrupt transitions between alternative ecosystem states in response to environmental changes. At the same time, environmental change can trigger evolutionary responses that could stabilize or destabilize ecosystem dynamics. However, we know little about how coupled ecological and evolutionary processes affect the risk of transition between alternative ecosystem states.

Probabilistic early warning signals.

Ecological communities and other complex systems can undergo abrupt and long-lasting reorganization, a regime shift, when deterministic or stochastic factors bring them to the vicinity of a tipping point between alternative states. Such changes can be large and often arise unexpectedly. However, theoretical and experimental analyses have shown that changes in correlation structure, variance, and other standard indicators of biomass, abundance, or other descriptive variables are often observed prior to a state shift, providing early warnings of an anticipated transition.

Are geochemical regime shifts identifiable in river waters? Exploring the compositional dynamics of the Tiber River (Italy).

Rivers are dynamic and sensitive systems that change their chemical composition from source to mouth. This is due to the influence of a set of variables controlled by hydro-litho-eco-atmospheric processes and anthropic pressures which are, in turn, affected by catchment attributes. This work proposes a new way of thinking about river geochemistry focused on environmental interconnections rather than single chemical variables.

Estimating the risk of species interaction loss in mutualistic communities.

Interactions between species generate the functions on which ecosystems and humans depend. However, we lack an understanding of the risk that interaction loss poses to ecological communities. Here, we quantify the risk of interaction loss for 4,330 species interactions from 41 empirical pollination and seed dispersal networks across 6 continents.

Unveiling dimensions of stability in complex ecological networks.

Understanding the stability of ecological communities is a matter of increasing importance in the context of global environmental change. Yet it has proved to be a challenging task. Different metrics are used to assess the stability of ecological systems, and the choice of one metric over another may result in conflicting conclusions.

Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse.

Changing conditions may lead to sudden shifts in the state of ecosystems when critical thresholds are passed. Some well-studied drivers of such transitions lead to predictable outcomes such as a turbid lake or a degraded landscape. Many ecosystems are, however, complex systems of many interacting species.

Regime shifts of Mediterranean forest carbon uptake and reduced resilience driven by multidecadal ocean surface temperatures.

The mechanisms translating global circulation changes into rapid abrupt shifts in forest carbon capture in semi-arid biomes remain poorly understood. Here, we report unprecedented multidecadal shifts in forest carbon uptake in semi-arid Mediterranean pine forests in Spain over 1950-2012. The averaged carbon sink reduction varies between 31% and 37%, and reaches values in the range of 50% in the most affected forest stands.

Ecosystem tipping points in an evolving world.

There is growing concern over tipping points arising in ecosystems because of the crossing of environmental thresholds. Tipping points lead to abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts between alternative ecosystem states, potentially incurring high societal costs. Trait variation in populations is central to the biotic feedbacks that maintain alternative ecosystem states, as they govern the responses of populations to environmental change that could stabilize or destabilize ecosystem states.