Publications by authors named "Urban Ales"

The assessment of human perception of the thermal environment is becoming highly relevant in the context of global climate change and its impact on public health. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the suitability of the use of four frequently used thermal comfort indices (thermal indices)-Wet Bulb Global Temperature (WGBT), Heat Index (HI), Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)-to assess human thermal comfort perception in three large urban parks in Central Europe, using Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic, as a case study. We investigated the relationship between the four indices and the thermal perception of park visitors, while taking into account the effect of the sex, age, and activity of the respondents and the week-time and daytime of their visit (assessed parameters).

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The impacts of climate change on human health are often underestimated or perceived to be in a distant future. Here, we present the projected impacts of climate change in the context of COVID-19, a recent human health catastrophe. We compared projected heat mortality with COVID-19 deaths in 38 cities worldwide and found that in half of these cities, heat-related deaths could exceed annual COVID-19 deaths in less than ten years (at + 3.

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Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study investigates how meteorological factors like temperature and humidity influence COVID-19 transmission across 439 cities from February 2020 to August 2022.
  • Researchers found that lower temperatures (5 °C) significantly increase the risk of COVID-19 incidents compared to moderate temperatures (17 °C), with absolute humidity showing an inverse relationship.
  • The analysis revealed no significant interaction between vaccination rates or variants and the effects of weather on COVID-19 transmission, reinforcing the importance of environmental factors in understanding the pandemic.
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Background: Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries.

Methods: We collected daily temperature and mortality data from each country.

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Background: Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM and PM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations' vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality effect estimates over time.

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Article Synopsis
  • - The study examines the connection between humidity levels and daily human mortality across 739 cities, highlighting how different heat stress indicators can predict health risks related to extreme heat.
  • - It reveals that air temperature (T) effectively predicts heat-related deaths in cities with strong negative humidity correlations, while cities with weak correlations benefit from using humidity-inclusive heat stress indicators for better predictions.
  • - The research underscores the need for improved heat-health alert systems by identifying regions particularly vulnerable to humid heat, facilitating targeted responses to protect public health.
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Background: Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O exposure with mortality globally.

Methods: We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis.

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Background: The ongoing increase in the mean global temperature due to human induced climate change, indicates that women and infants will have higher exposure to heat events leading to adverse outcomes. The study investigates the effect of non-optimal ambient temperature on the risk of preterm birth stratified by social position in Nepal.

Method: This is a space-time-stratified case-crossover design, based on hospital-registered perinatal data between 2017 and 2021 (n = 47,807).

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Background: The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.

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Article Synopsis
  • Temperature variability (TV), both intra-day and inter-day, impacts mortality rates, but this study found intra-day variation poses a higher risk to all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.
  • Analyzing data from 758 locations over nearly 50 years, the researchers discovered that each increase in intra-day TV correlates with a greater increase in mortality risk compared to inter-day TV.
  • The study recommends further evaluations of the impacts of temperature variability on health, particularly focusing on intra-day fluctuations, which accounted for more than four times the mortality risk compared to inter-day variability.
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Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions.

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Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.

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Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones.

Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network.

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Background: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells.

Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions).

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Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.

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Background: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent.

Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries.

Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM), PM ≤ 2.

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Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons.

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It is acknowledged that climate change exacerbates social inequalities, and women have been reported as more vulnerable to heat than men in many studies in Europe, including the Czech Republic. This study aimed at investigating the associations between daily temperature and mortality in the Czech Republic in the light of a sex and gender perspective, taking into account other factors such as age and marital status. Daily mean temperature and individual mortality data recorded during the five warmest months of the year (from May to September) over the period 1995-2019 were used to fit a quasi-Poisson regression model, which included a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to account for the delayed and non-linear effects of temperature on mortality.

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Background: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks.

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Background: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations.

Objectives: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries.

Methods: Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.

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Background: Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global setting.

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