Enhancing seasonal influenza projections: A mechanistic metapopulation model for long-term scenario planning.

In temperate regions, annual preparation by public health officials for seasonal influenza requires early-season long-term projections. These projections are different from short-term (e.g.

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons. Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons.

Response to Preoperative Steroid Injections Predicts Surgical Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Fusion for Isthmic Spondylolisthesis.

Study Design: Retrospective cohort study.

Objective: The decision to pursue operative intervention for patients with isthmic spondylolisthesis is complex. Although steroid injections are a well-accepted therapeutic modality that may delay or obviate surgery, little is known regarding their ability to predict surgical outcomes.

Consistent pattern of epidemic slowing across many geographies led to longer, flatter initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

To define appropriate planning scenarios for future pandemics of respiratory pathogens, it is important to understand the initial transmission dynamics of COVID-19 during 2020. Here, we fit an age-stratified compartmental model with a flexible underlying transmission term to daily COVID-19 death data from states in the contiguous U.S.

Considerations for Lumbar Medial Branch Nerve Radiofrequency at Spinal Motion Segments Adjacent to a Fusion Construct.

Instrumented lumbar spinal fusion is common and results in biomechanical changes at adjacent spinal segments that increase facet load bearing. This can cause facet-mediated pain at levels adjacent to the surgical construct. Medial branch nerve radiofrequency ablation (RFA) exists as a treatment for some cases.

COVID-19 deaths: Which explanatory variables matter the most?

More than a year since the appearance of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many questions about the disease COVID-19 have been answered; however, many more remain poorly understood. Although the situation continues to evolve, it is crucial to understand what factors may be driving transmission through different populations, both for potential future waves, as well as the implications for future pandemics. In this report, we compiled a database of more than 28 potentially explanatory variables for each of the 50 U.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.

Resource utilization and disaggregated cost analysis of bariatric surgery in the Australian public healthcare system.

Objectives: To present a comprehensive real-world micro-costing analysis of bariatric surgery.

Methods: Patients were included if they underwent primary bariatric surgery (gastric banding [GB], gastric bypass [GBP] and sleeve gastrectomy [SG]) between 2013 and 2019. Costs were disaggregated into cost items and average-per-patient costs from the Australian healthcare systems perspective were expressed in constant 2019 Australian dollars for the entire cohort and subgroup analysis.

Healthcare resource utilisation and predictors for critical care unit admissions after primary bariatric surgery in an Australian public hospital setting: an exploratory study using a mixed-methods approach.

Objectives The aim of this exploratory study was to investigate resource use and predictors associated with critical care unit (CCU) admission after primary bariatric surgery within the Tasmanian public healthcare system. Methods Patients undergoing primary bariatric surgery in the Tasmanian Health Service (THS) public hospital system between 7 July 2013 and 30 June 2019 were eligible for inclusion in this study. The THS provides two levels of CCU support, an intensive care unit (ICU) and a high dependency unit (HDU).

COVID-19: On the Disparity in Outcomes Between Military and Civilian Populations.

Introduction: The CoronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic remains a formidable threat to populations around the world. The U.S.

Accurate influenza forecasts using type-specific incidence data for small geographic units.

Influenza incidence forecasting is used to facilitate better health system planning and could potentially be used to allow at-risk individuals to modify their behavior during a severe seasonal influenza epidemic or a novel respiratory pandemic. For example, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs an annual competition to forecast influenza-like illness (ILI) at the regional and national levels in the US, based on a standard discretized incidence scale. Here, we use a suite of forecasting models to analyze type-specific incidence at the smaller spatial scale of clusters of nearby counties.

Hangman's Fracture.

Study Design: Review article.

Objective: A review and update of the treatment of Hangman's fractures including the indications for both nonoperative and operative treatment of typical and atypical fractures.

Summary Of Background Data: Hangman's fractures are the second most common fracture pattern of the C2 vertebrae following odontoid fractures.

Brain-Dependent Processes Fuel Pain-Induced Hemorrhage After Spinal Cord Injury.

Pain (nociceptive) input caudal to a spinal contusion injury can undermine long-term recovery and increase tissue loss (secondary injury). Prior work suggests that nociceptive stimulation has this effect because it fosters the breakdown of the blood-spinal cord barrier (BSCB) at the site of injury, allowing blood to infiltrate the tissue. The present study examined whether these effects impact tissue rostral and caudal to the site of injury.

Forecasting national and regional influenza-like illness for the USA.

Health planners use forecasts of key metrics associated with influenza-like illness (ILI); near-term weekly incidence, week of season onset, week of peak, and intensity of peak. Here, we describe our participation in a weekly prospective ILI forecasting challenge for the United States for the 2016-17 season and subsequent evaluation of our performance. We implemented a metapopulation model framework with 32 model variants.

Engaging pain fibers after a spinal cord injury fosters hemorrhage and expands the area of secondary injury.

In humans, spinal cord injury (SCI) is often accompanied by additional tissue damage (polytrauma) that can engage pain (nociceptive) fibers. Prior work has shown that this nociceptive input can expand the area of tissue damage (secondary injury), undermine behavioral recovery, and enhance the development of chronic pain. Here, it is shown that nociceptive input given a day after a lower thoracic contusion injury in rats enhances the infiltration of red blood cells at the site of injury, producing an area of hemorrhage that expands secondary injury.

Pain Input After Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Undermines Long-Term Recovery and Engages Signal Pathways That Promote Cell Death.

Pain (nociceptive) input caudal to a spinal contusion injury increases tissue loss and impairs long-term recovery. It was hypothesized that noxious stimulation has this effect because it engages unmyelinated pain (C) fibers that produce a state of over-excitation in central pathways. The present article explored this issue by assessing the effect of capsaicin, which activates C-fibers that express the transient receptor potential vanilloid receptor-1 (TRPV1).

Fixed spaced stimulation restores adaptive plasticity within the spinal cord: Identifying the eliciting conditions.

Prior work has shown that neurons within the spinal cord are sensitive to temporal relations and that stimulus regularity impacts nociceptive processing and adaptive plasticity. Application of brief (80ms) shocks (180-900) in a variable manner induces a form of maladaptive plasticity that inhibits spinally-mediated learning and enhances nociceptive reactivity. In contrast, an extended exposure (720-900) to stimuli given at regular (fixed spaced) intervals has a restorative effect that counters nociceptive sensitization and enables learning.

Pain Input Impairs Recovery after Spinal Cord Injury: Treatment with Lidocaine.

More than 90% of spinal cord injuries are caused by traumatic accidents and are often associated with other tissue damage (polytrauma) that can provide a source of continued pain input during recovery. In a clinically relevant spinal cord contusion injury model, prior work has shown that noxious stimulation at an intensity that engages pain (C) fibers soon after injury augments secondary injury and impairs functional recovery. Noxious input increases the expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines (interleukin 1β and 18), cellular signals associated with cell death (caspase 3 and 8), and physiological signs of hemorrhage.

Intermittent noxious stimulation following spinal cord contusion injury impairs locomotor recovery and reduces spinal brain-derived neurotrophic factor-tropomyosin-receptor kinase signaling in adult rats.

Intermittent nociceptive stimulation following a complete transection or contused spinal cord injury (SCI) has been shown to exert several short- and long-lasting negative consequences. These include maladaptive spinal plasticity, enhanced mechanical allodynia, and impaired functional recovery of locomotor and bladder functions. The neurotrophin, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) has been shown to play an important role in adaptive plasticity and also to restore functions following SCI.