Health disparities in cervical cancer: Estimating geographic variations of disease burden and association with key socioeconomic and demographic factors in the US.

Background: Despite advances in cervical cancer (CC) prevention, detection, and treatment in the US, health disparities persist, disproportionately affecting underserved populations or regions. This study analyzes the geographical distribution of both CC and recurrent/metastatic CC (r/mCC) in the US and explores potential risk factors of higher disease burden to inform potential strategies to address disparities in CC and r/mCC.

Methods: We estimated CC screening rates, as well as CC burden (number of patients with CC diagnosis per 100,000 eligible enrollees) and r/mCC burden (proportion of CC patients receiving systemic therapy not in conjunction with surgery or radiation), at the geographic level between 2017-2022 using administrative claims.

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org).

Telemental Health Utilization in Commercial Health Insurance Plans in the United States From 2010 Through 2019.

We sought to characterize patterns of utilization of telemental health among commercially insured individuals over the decade preceding COVID-19. We developed telemental health service groups from the US PharMetrics Plus database, using diagnostic codes to identify those diagnosed with mental health conditions and procedure codes to capture mental health visits delivered via telehealth sessions. We analyzed 2 indicators of utilization between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2019: (1) the percentage of patients with mental health needs who used telemental health services and (2) the percentage of all mental health services provided via telehealth.

The Rising Costs of Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease in the United States.

Introduction: Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is rising in the United States because of an increase in high-risk drinking, but population-level ALD cost is unknown. Our aim was to project the direct and indirect costs associated with ALD in the US population through 2040.

Methods: We used a previously validated microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and ALD with model parameters estimated from publicly available data sources, including the National Epidemiologic Survey Alcohol and Related Conditions-III, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and published studies informing the impact of alcohol consumption on ALD severity in the United States resident population.

Effectiveness of HCC surveillance programs using multitarget blood test: A modeling study.

Background: The effectiveness of ultrasound-based surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis is limited by suboptimal sensitivity for early tumor detection and poor adherence. Emerging blood-based biomarkers have been proposed as an alternative surveillance strategy. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of a multitarget HCC blood test (mt-HBT)-with and without improved adherence-against ultrasound-based HCC surveillance.

Interpersonal Primary Care Continuity for Chronic Conditions Is Associated with Fewer Hospitalizations and Emergency Department Visits Among Medicaid Enrollees.

Background: Interpersonal primary care continuity or chronic condition continuity (CCC) is associated with improved health outcomes. Ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSC) are best managed in a primary care setting, and chronic ACSC (CACSC) require management over time. However, current measures do not measure continuity for specific conditions or the impact of continuity for chronic conditions on health outcomes.

Factors associated with receipt of second-line recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer treatment in the United States: A retrospective administrative claims analysis.

Purpose: Contemporary, real-world data on eligible patients receiving treatment following progression on first-line (1L) recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer (r/mCC) therapy are needed to inform treatment algorithms and identify potential gaps in the r/mCC care continuum.

Methods: This study estimated the prevalence and predictors of second-line (2L) r/mCC therapy among 1L-treated patients using the 2015-2020 IBM MarketScan® commercial claims database. Women ≥ 18 years diagnosed with cervical cancer and treated with first-line systemic therapies were identified and followed for 12 months from their 1L therapy end date.

Cervical cancer geographical burden analyzer: An interactive, open-access tool for understanding geographical disease burden in patients with recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer.

Objective: Cervical cancer (CC) disproportionately affects women based on socioeconomic status and racial/ethnic background. There is limited research in quantifying and visualizing whether substantial geographical disparities in the US exist with respect to CC burden, and especially with respect to recurrent or metastatic CC (r/mCC) disease burden. Identifying regions with higher r/mCC burden may help inform effective healthcare resource allocation and navigating patients to appropriate care.

Factors associated with receipt of second-line recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer treatment in the United States: A retrospective administrative claims analysis.

Purpose: Contemporary, real-world data on eligible patients receiving treatment following progression on first-line (1L) recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer (r/mCC) therapy are needed to inform treatment algorithms and identify potential gaps in the r/mCC care continuum.

Methods: This study estimated the prevalence and predictors of second-line (2L) r/mCC therapy among 1L-treated patients using the 2015-2020 IBM MarketScan® commercial claims database. Women ≥ 18 years diagnosed with cervical cancer and treated with first-line systemic therapies were identified and followed for 12 months from their 1L therapy end date.

Cost-Effectiveness and Value-of-Information Analysis Using Machine Learning-Based Metamodeling: A Case of Hepatitis C Treatment.

Background: Metamodels can address some of the limitations of complex simulation models by formulating a mathematical relationship between input parameters and simulation model outcomes. Our objective was to develop and compare the performance of a machine learning (ML)-based metamodel against a conventional metamodeling approach in replicating the findings of a complex simulation model.

Methods: We constructed 3 ML-based metamodels using random forest, support vector regression, and artificial neural networks and a linear regression-based metamodel from a previously validated microsimulation model of the natural history hepatitis C virus (HCV) consisting of 40 input parameters.

Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions.

Importance: A key question for policy makers and the public is what to expect from the COVID-19 pandemic going forward as states lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs), such as indoor mask mandates, to prevent COVID-19 transmission.

Objective: To project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs.

Design Setting And Participants: This simulation modeling study used the COVID-19 Policy Simulator compartmental model to project COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, using simulated populations in the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico.

Comparison of a multitarget blood test to ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: Results of a network meta-analysis.

Ultrasound-based surveillance has suboptimal sensitivity for early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis. There are several emerging alternatives, including a novel multitarget HCC blood test (Mt-HBT). We compared performance of mt-HBT against ultrasound with or without alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) for early HCC detection in patients with cirrhosis.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.

Effect of increased alcohol consumption during COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol-associated liver disease: A modeling study.

Background And Aims: Alcohol consumption increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in the United States. We projected the effect of increased alcohol consumption on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and mortality.

Approach And Results: We extended a previously validated microsimulation model that estimated the short- and long-term effect of increased drinking during the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals in the United States born between 1920 and 2012.

Association of Limited In-Person Attendance in US National Football League and National Collegiate Athletic Association Games With County-Level COVID-19 Cases.

Importance: In 2020 and early 2021, the National Football League (NFL) and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) opted to host football games in stadiums across the country. The in-person attendance of games varied with time and from county to county. There is currently no evidence on whether limited in-person attendance of games is associated with COVID-19 case numbers on a county-level.

Increasing Utilization of Emergency Department Neuroimaging From 2007 Through 2017.

The volume of emergency department (ED) visits and the number of neuroimaging examinations have increased since the start of the century. Little is known about this growth in the commercially insured and Medicare Advantage populations. The purpose of our study was to evaluate changing ED utilization of neuroimaging from 2007 through 2017 in both commercially insured and Medicare Advantage enrollees.

Gene expression profiling-based risk prediction and profiles of immune infiltration in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

The clinical risk stratification of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) relies on the International Prognostic Index (IPI) for the identification of high-risk disease. Recent studies suggest that the immune microenvironment plays a role in treatment response prediction and survival in DLBCL. This study developed a risk prediction model and evaluated the model's biological implications in association with the estimated profiles of immune infiltration.

Assessment of Incidence of and Surveillance Burden for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Patients With Hepatitis C in the Era of Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents.

Importance: In the US, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), primarily associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, is the fastest rising cause of cancer-related death. Wider use of highly effective direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) substantially reduces the burden of chronic HCV infection, but the subsequent impacts with HCV-associated HCC remain unknown.

Objective: To assess projected changes in the incidence rate of and surveillance burden for HCC in the era of DAA treatment for HCV.

A comparison of first trimester prenatal screening strategies for Down Syndrome with maternal age and preferences considerations.

Objective: Screening for Down Syndrome (DS) includes traditional ultrasound and serum-based and cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing. While cfDNA testing usually has superior performance, it is significantly more costly. As an alternative, a hybrid strategy combining contingent cfDNA with traditional testing is recommended when universal cfDNA screening is not feasible.

Primary Care Comprehensiveness and Care Coordination in Robust Specialist Networks Results in Lower Emergency Department Utilization: A Network Analysis of Medicaid Physician Networks.

Care coordination is an essential and difficult to measure function of primary care. Our objective was to assess the impact of network characteristics in primary/specialty physician networks on emergency department (ED) visits for patients with chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs). This cross-sectional social network analysis of primary care and specialty physicians caring for adult Medicaid beneficiaries with ACSCs was conducted using 2009 Texas Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX) files.

Projected prevalence and mortality associated with alcohol-related liver disease in the USA, 2019-40: a modelling study.

Background: Alcohol-related liver disease is the leading indication for liver transplantation in the USA. After remaining stable for over three decades, the number of deaths due to alcohol-related liver disease has been increasing as a result of increased high-risk drinking. We aimed to project trends in alcohol-related cirrhosis and deaths in the USA up to 2040 and assess the effect of potential changes in alcohol consumption on those trends.

Improved Health Outcomes from Hepatitis C Treatment Scale-Up in Spain's Prisons: A Cost-Effectiveness Study.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is 15 times more prevalent among persons in Spain's prisons than in the community. Recently, Spain initiated a pilot program, JAILFREE-C, to treat HCV in prisons using direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Our aim was to identify a cost-effective strategy to scale-up HCV treatment in all prisons.

Analysis of medication patterns for pediatric asthma patients in emergency department: Does the sequence placement of glucocorticoids administration matter?

: Timely glucocorticoid administration is associated with decreased admission rate and is thus a common quality metric for ED asthma care; less is known about the impact of the timing of glucocorticoids in the context of the sequence of asthma medications administered. Therefore, we investigated the distribution of asthma medication sequences in one ED and analyzed the effect of the sequence placement of glucocorticoids administration on treatment outcomes.: A retrospective study using five-year electronic health record data obtained from an academic urban children's hospital ED was conducted.