Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up.

Arctic sea ice mediates atmosphere-ocean momentum transfer, which drives upper ocean circulation. How Arctic Ocean surface stress and velocity respond to sea ice decline and changing winds under global warming is unclear. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models consistently predict an increase in future (2015-2100) ocean surface stress in response to increased surface wind speed, declining sea ice area, and a weaker ice pack.

The Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system is entering a seasonal regime: Implications for future Arctic amplification.

The loss of Arctic sea ice is a conspicuous example of climate change. Climate models project ice-free conditions during summer this century under realistic emission scenarios, reflecting the increase in seasonality in ice cover. To quantify the increased seasonality in the Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system, we define a non-dimensional seasonality number for sea ice extent, area, and volume from satellite data and realistic coupled climate models.