During the COVID-19 pandemic, both government-mandated lockdowns and discretionary changes in behaviour combined to produce dramatic and abrupt changes to human mobility patterns. To understand the socioeconomic determinants of intervention compliance and discretionary behavioural responses to epidemic threats, we investigate whether changes in human mobility showed a systematic variation by socioeconomic status during two distinct periods of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. We analyse mobility data from two major urban centres and compare the trends during mandated stay-at-home policies and after the full relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions, which coincided with a large surge of COVID-19 cases.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFContact matrices are a commonly adopted data representation, used to develop compartmental models for epidemic spreading, accounting for the contact heterogeneities across age groups. Their estimation, however, is generally time and effort consuming and model-driven strategies to quantify the contacts are often needed. In this article we focus on household contact matrices, describing the contacts among the members of a family and develop a parametric model to describe them.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThe emerging role of glial cells in modulating neuronal excitability and synaptic strength is a growing field in neuroscience. In recent years, a pivotal role of gliotransmission in homeostatic presynaptic plasticity has been highlighted and glial-derived ATP arises as a key contributor. However, very little is known about the glial non-vesicular ATP-release pathway and how ATP participates in the modulation of synaptic strength.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMobile phone data have been widely used to model the spread of COVID-19; however, quantifying and comparing their predictive value across different settings is challenging. Their quality is affected by various factors and their relationship with epidemiological indicators varies over time. Here, we adopt a model-free approach based on transfer entropy to quantify the relationship between mobile phone-derived mobility metrics and COVID-19 cases and deaths in more than 200 European subnational regions.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: Households are an important location for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, especially during periods when travel and work was restricted to essential services. We aimed to assess the association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Methods: We deployed proximity sensors for two weeks to measure face-to-face interactions between household members after SARS-CoV-2 was identified in the household, in South Africa, 2020-2021.
Urban agglomerations are constantly and rapidly evolving ecosystems, with globalization and increasing urbanization posing new challenges in sustainable urban development well summarized in the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The advent of the digital age generated by modern alternative data sources provides new tools to tackle these challenges with spatio-temporal scales that were previously unavailable with census statistics. In this review, we present how new digital data sources are employed to provide data-driven insights to study and track (i) urban crime and public safety; (ii) socioeconomic inequalities and segregation; and (iii) public health, with a particular focus on the city scale.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFFood insecurity, defined as the lack of physical or economic access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food, remains one of the main challenges included in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Near real-time data on the food insecurity situation collected by international organizations such as the World Food Programme can be crucial to monitor and forecast time trends of insufficient food consumption levels in countries at risk. Here, using food consumption observations in combination with secondary data on conflict, extreme weather events and economic shocks, we build a forecasting model based on gradient boosted regression trees to create predictions on the evolution of insufficient food consumption trends up to 30 days in to the future in 6 countries (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Mali, Nigeria, Syria and Yemen).
View Article and Find Full Text PDFDespite the availability of effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, non-pharmaceutical interventions remain an important part of the effort to reduce viral circulation caused by emerging variants with the capability of evading vaccine-induced immunity. With the aim of striking a balance between effective mitigation and long-term sustainability, several governments worldwide have adopted systems of tiered interventions, of increasing stringency, that are calibrated according to periodic risk assessments. A key challenge remains in quantifying temporal changes in adherence to interventions, which can decrease over time due to pandemic fatigue, under such kind of multilevel strategies.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEnding poverty in all its forms everywhere is the number one Sustainable Development Goal of the UN 2030 Agenda. To monitor the progress toward such an ambitious target, reliable, up-to-date and fine-grained measurements of socioeconomic indicators are necessary. When it comes to socioeconomic development, novel digital traces can provide a complementary data source to overcome the limits of traditional data collection methods, which are often not regularly updated and lack adequate spatial resolution.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFTimely, accurate, and comparative data on human mobility is of paramount importance for epidemic preparedness and response, but generally not available or easily accessible. Mobile phone metadata, typically in the form of Call Detail Records (CDRs), represents a powerful source of information on human movements at an unprecedented scale. In this work, we investigate the potential benefits of harnessing aggregated CDR-derived mobility to predict the 2015-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in Colombia, when compared to other traditional data sources.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThe COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted how structural social inequities fundamentally shape disease dynamics, yet these concepts are often at the margins of the computational modeling community. Building on recent research studies in the area of digital and computational epidemiology, we provide a set of practical and methodological recommendations to address socioeconomic vulnerabilities in epidemic models.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThe COVID-19 information epidemic, or "infodemic," demonstrates how unlimited access to information may confuse and influence behaviors during a health emergency. However, the study of infodemics is relatively new, and little is known about their relationship with epidemics management. Here, we discuss unresolved issues and propose research directions to enhance preparedness for future health crises.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFInvasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has a low and unpredictable incidence, presenting challenges for real-world evaluations of meningococcal vaccines. Traditionally, meningococcal vaccine impact is evaluated by predicting counterfactuals from pre-immunization IMD incidences, possibly controlling for IMD in unvaccinated age groups, but the selection of controls can influence results. We retrospectively applied a synthetic control (SC) method, previously used for pneumococcal disease, to data from 2 programs for immunization of infants against serogroups B and C IMD in England and Brazil.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFAssessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the importance of multi-seeding has often been overlooked. Multi-seeding occurs when several independent (non-clustered) infected individuals arrive at a susceptible population.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFAfter more than 1 year into the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide still face the challenge of adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the risks posed by the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and the lack of a worldwide equitable vaccine allocation. Thus, it becomes crucial to identify the drivers of mobility responses to mitigation efforts during different restriction regimes, for planning interventions that are both economically and socially sustainable while effective in controlling an outbreak. Here, using anonymous and privacy-enhanced cell phone data from Italy, we investigate the determinants of spatial variations of reductions in mobility and co-location in response to the adoption and the lift of restrictions, considering both provinces and city neighbourhoods.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: Social distancing have been widely used to mitigate community spread of SARS-CoV-2. We sought to quantify the impact of COVID-19 social distancing policies across 27 European counties in spring 2020 on population mobility and the subsequent trajectory of disease.
Methods: We obtained data on national social distancing policies from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and aggregated and anonymized mobility data from Google.
We study the spatio-temporal spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Santiago de Chile using anonymized mobile phone data from 1.4 million users, 22% of the whole population in the area, characterizing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the epidemic dynamics. We integrate these data into a mechanistic epidemic model calibrated on surveillance data.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFOrofacial pain represents a challenge for dentists, especially if it does not have an odontogenic origin. Orofacial neuropathic pain may be chronic, is arduous to localize and may develop without obvious pathology. Comorbid psychiatric disorders, such as anxiety and depression, coexist and negatively affect this condition.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMedia framing of epidemics was found to influence public perceptions and behaviors in experiments, yet no research has been conducted on real-world behaviors during public health crises. We examined the relationship between Italian news media coverage of COVID-19 and compliance with stay-at-home orders, which could impact the spread of epidemics. We used a computational method for framing analysis (ANTMN) and combined it with Google's Community Mobility data.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFAnxiety and distress can jeopardize dental care experience of patients and may affect the clinical result. Although a wide range of sedation and analgesia techniques are currently available to relieve distress and pain during dental procedures, operative models to choose the most effective sedation-analgesic strategies are still insufficient. This case series proposes a patient-centered model to optimize patients' cooperation during dental care delivery.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFItaly has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, reporting the highest death toll in Europe as of April 2020. Following the identification of the first infections, on February 21, 2020, national authorities have put in place an increasing number of restrictions aimed at containing the outbreak and delaying the epidemic peak. On March 12, the government imposed a national lockdown.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFA key feature of neurotransmission is its ability to adapt to changes in neuronal environment, which is essential for many brain functions. Homeostatic synaptic plasticity (HSP) emerges as a compensatory mechanism used by neurons to adjust their excitability in response to changes in synaptic activity. Recently, glial cells emerged as modulators for neurotransmission by releasing gliotransmitters into the synaptic cleft through pathways that include P2X receptors (P2XR), connexons, and pannexons.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFIn recent years, many studies have drawn attention to the important role of collective awareness and human behaviour during epidemic outbreaks. A number of modelling efforts have investigated the interaction between the disease transmission dynamics and human behaviour change mediated by news coverage and by information spreading in the population. Yet, given the scarcity of data on public awareness during an epidemic, few studies have relied on empirical data.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF