Evidence-based controls for epidemics using spatio-temporal stochastic models in a Bayesian framework.

The control of highly infectious diseases of agricultural and plantation crops and livestock represents a key challenge in epidemiological and ecological modelling, with implemented control strategies often being controversial. Mathematical models, including the spatio-temporal stochastic models considered here, are playing an increasing role in the design of control as agencies seek to strengthen the evidence on which selected strategies are based. Here, we investigate a general approach to informing the choice of control strategies using spatio-temporal models within the Bayesian framework.

Solar thermotherapy reduces the titer of Liberibacter asiaticus and enhances canopy growth by altering gene expression profiles in HLB-affected citrus plants.

Huanglongbing (HLB), a systemic and destructive disease of citrus, is associated with ' Liberibacter asiaticus' (Las) in the United States. Our earlier work has shown that Las bacteria were significantly reduced or eliminated when potted HLB-affected citrus were continuously exposed to high temperatures of 40 to 42 °C for a minimum of 48 h. To determine the feasibility and effectiveness of solar thermotherapy in the field, portable plastic enclosures were placed over commercial and residential citrus, exposing trees to high temperatures through solarization.

Risk-based management of invading plant disease.

Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida.

Optimising and communicating options for the control of invasive plant disease when there is epidemiological uncertainty.

Although local eradication is routinely attempted following introduction of disease into a new region, failure is commonplace. Epidemiological principles governing the design of successful control are not well-understood. We analyse factors underlying the effectiveness of reactive eradication of localised outbreaks of invading plant disease, using citrus canker in Florida as a case study, although our results are largely generic, and apply to other plant pathogens (as we show via our second case study, citrus greening).

Thirteen challenges in modelling plant diseases.

The underlying structure of epidemiological models, and the questions that models can be used to address, do not necessarily depend on the host organism in question. This means that certain preoccupations of plant disease modellers are similar to those of modellers of diseases in human, livestock and wild animal populations. However, a number of aspects of plant epidemiology are very distinctive, and this leads to specific challenges in modelling plant diseases, which in turn sets a certain agenda for modellers.

Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes.

Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The choice of an adequate level of response relies upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a new pathogen is introduced into an alien environment, such information is often lacking or of no use, and epidemiological parameters must be estimated from the first observations of the epidemic.

Bayesian inference for an emerging arboreal epidemic in the presence of control.

The spread of Huanglongbing through citrus groves is used as a case study for modeling an emerging epidemic in the presence of a control. Specifically, the spread of the disease is modeled as a susceptible-exposed-infectious-detected-removed epidemic, where the exposure and infectious times are not observed, detection times are censored, removal times are known, and the disease is spreading through a heterogeneous host population with trees of different age and susceptibility. We show that it is possible to characterize the disease transmission process under these conditions.

What interval characteristics make a good categorical disease assessment scale?

Plant pathologists most often obtain quantitative information on disease severity using visual assessments. Category scales have been used for assessing plant disease severity in field experiments, epidemiological studies, and for screening germplasm. The most widely used category scale is the Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) scale, but reports show that estimates of disease severity using the H-B scale are less precise compared with nearest percent estimates (NPEs) using the 0 to 100% ratio scale.

The Effect of Horsfall-Barratt Category Size on the Accuracy and Reliability of Estimates of Pecan Scab Severity.

Pecan scab (Fusicladium effusum) is a destructive pecan disease. Disease assessments may be made using interval-scale-based methods or estimates of severity to the nearest percent area diseased. To explore the effects of rating method-Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) scale estimates versus nearest percent estimates (NPEs)-on the accuracy and reliability of severity estimates over different actual pecan scab severity ranges on fruit valves, raters assessed two cohorts of images with actual area (0 to 6, 6 to 25%, and 25 to 75%) diseased.

Efficacy of Area-Wide Inoculum Reduction and Vector Control on Temporal Progress of Huanglongbing in Young Sweet Orange Plantings.

Huanglongbing (HLB), caused by 'Candidatus Liberibacter' spp. and transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri (ACP), is an important threat to citrus industries worldwide, causing significant yield loss. The current recommended strategies to manage HLB are to eliminate HLB-symptomatic trees to reduce sources of bacterial inoculum and to apply insecticides to reduce psyllid vector populations.

Pecan Scab Severity-Effects of Assessment Methods.

Pecan scab is caused by the fungus Fusicladium effusum, and is the most destructive disease of pecan in the United States. Accurate and reliable disease assessments are needed to ensure that data provide a measure of actual disease intensity. The Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) category scale and its derivatives are commonly used to assess disease.

Comparison of FTIR spectra between Huanglongbing (citrus greening) and other citrus maladies.

Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy has the ability to quickly identify the presence of specific carbohydrates in plant materials. The presence of the disease huanglongbing (HLB) in the leaves of infected citrus plants has a distinctive spectrum that can be used to distinguish an infected plant from a healthy plant. However, many citrus diseases display similar visible symptoms and are of concern to citrus growers.

Current epidemiological understanding of citrus Huanglongbing .

Huanglongbing (HLB) is the most destructive citrus pathosystem worldwide. Previously known primarily from Asia and Africa, it was introduced into the Western Hemisphere in 2004. All infected commercial citrus industries continue to decline owing to inadequate current control methods.

Spatial and temporal analyses of citrus sudden death as a tool to generate hypotheses concerning its etiology.

ABSTRACT Citrus sudden death (CSD), a new disease of unknown etiology that affects sweet orange grafted on Rangpur lime, was visually monitored for 14 months in 41 groves in Brazil. Ordinary runs analysis of CSD-symptomatic trees indicated a departure from randomness of symptomatic trees status among immediately adjacent trees mainly within rows. The binomial index of dispersion (D) and the intraclass correlation (k) for various quadrat sizes suggested aggregation of CSD-symptomatic trees for almost all plots within the quadrat sizes tested.

Geo-referenced spatiotemporal analysis of the urban citrus canker epidemic in Florida.

ABSTRACT Five areas in urban Miami were identified to study the spread of Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri to determine if the practice of removing exposed citrus trees within 38.1 m of trees affected by citrus canker was adequate to curtail further bacterial spread.

Analysis of Fire Blight Shoot Infection Epidemics on Apple.

Fire blight incidence and spread of the shoot blight phase of the disease was studied in four apple cultivars in replicated blocks over 4 years (1994 to 1997). Cv. York was highly susceptible, followed by 'Fuji' and 'Golden Delicious,' which were moderately susceptible, and 'Liberty,' which was least susceptible.

Effects of radiation (Cobalt-60) on the elimination of Brevipalpus phoenicis (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) Cardinium endosymbiont.

Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes) (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) is a polyphagous mite with worldwide distribution and it is also a vector of several plant viruses. In citrus, B. phoenicis transmits Citrus leprosis virus (CiLV), the causal agent of leprosis, a disease that costs millions of dollars per year for its prevention and control.

Effects of temperature, storage period and the number of individuals on the detection of the false spider mite Cardinium endosymbiont.

Cardinium have been found as endosymbionts of Brevipalpus phoenicis, the mite vector of the Citrus leprosis virus. With the long-term objective being to understand the mechanisms of plant-virus-vector interactions, we evaluated the different storage conditions and periods, as well as the number of mites needed for PCR-amplification of such endosymbionts, making it possible to collect mites in different geographical regions without prolonged storage compromising subsequent analyses.

Detection and Characterization of a New Strain of Citrus Canker Bacteria from Key/Mexican Lime and Alemow in South Florida.

In the Wellington and Lake Worth areas of Palm Beach County, FL, citrus canker appeared on Key/Mexican lime (Citrus aurantiifolia) and alemow (C. macrophylla) trees over a period of about 6 to 7 years before detection, but nearby canker-susceptible citrus, such as grapefruit (C. × paradisi) and sweet orange (C.

Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri: factors affecting successful eradication of citrus canker.

Unlabelled: SUMMARY Taxonomic status: Bacteria, Proteobacteria, gamma subdivision, Xanthomodales, Xanthomonas group, axonopodis DNA homology group, X. axonopodis pv. citri (Hasse) Vauterin et al.