Analysis of German BSE Surveillance Data: Estimation of the Prevalence of Confirmed Cases versus the Number of Infected, but Non-Detected, Cattle to Assess Confidence in Freedom from Infection.

Quantitative risk assessments for Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) necessitate estimates for key parameters such as the prevalence of infection, the probability of absence of infection in defined birth cohorts, and the numbers of BSE-infected, but non-detected cattle entering the food chain. We estimated three key parameters with adjustment for misclassification using the German BSE surveillance data using a Gompertz model for latent (i.e.

Community structure of domesticated pigs in livestock facilities.

The social structure of animal groups is considered to have an impact on their health and welfare. This could also be true for animals under commercial conditions, but research in this area has been limited. Pigs for example are known to be very social animals, but information about their grouping behavior is mostly derived from wild boars and a limited number of studies in seminatural and commercial conditions.

Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist methods for prevalence estimation under misclassification.

Background: Various methods exist for statistical inference about a prevalence that consider misclassifications due to an imperfect diagnostic test. However, traditional methods are known to suffer from truncation of the prevalence estimate and the confidence intervals constructed around the point estimate, as well as from under-performance of the confidence intervals' coverage.

Methods: In this study, we used simulated data sets to validate a Bayesian prevalence estimation method and compare its performance to frequentist methods, i.

Quantitative allergenicity risk assessment of food products containing yellow mealworm (Tenebrio molitor).

Insect-based foods are starting to enter the EU market, raising concerns about their safety. Allergic consumers might be exposed to even a greater risk, since insects have proven to trigger allergic symptoms, particularly in patients sensitised to crustaceans. Current legislation does not enforce producers to include insects in the list of allergenic ingredients.

Simple changes of individual studies can improve the reproducibility of the biomedical scientific process as a whole.

We developed a new probabilistic model to assess the impact of recommendations rectifying the reproducibility crisis (by publishing both positive and 'negative' results and increasing statistical power) on competing objectives, such as discovering causal relationships, avoiding publishing false positive results, and reducing resource consumption. In contrast to recent publications our model quantifies the impact of each single suggestion not only for an individual study but especially their relation and consequences for the overall scientific process. We can prove that higher-powered experiments can save resources in the overall research process without generating excess false positives.

Lead content in wild game shot with lead or non-lead ammunition - Does "state of the art consumer health protection" require non-lead ammunition?

The toxicity of lead has been known for a long time, and no safe uptake level can be derived for humans. Consumers' intake via food should therefore be kept as low as possible. Game meat can contain elevated levels of lead due to the use of lead ammunition for hunting.

Copper and zinc content in wild game shot with lead or non-lead ammunition - implications for consumer health protection.

The aim of this study was to examine the contamination of game meat with copper and zinc and establish whether the use of alternative (non-lead) ammunition can lead to higher or unsafe levels of copper and zinc in the meat of roe deer, wild boar and red deer. The research project "Safety of game meat obtained through hunting" (LEMISI) was conducted in Germany with the purpose of examining the entry of lead as well as copper and zinc into the meat of hunted game when using either lead or non-lead ammunition. The outcome of this study shows that the usage of both lead-based ammunition and alternative non-lead ammunition results in the entry of copper and zinc into the edible parts of the game.

Hunting of roe deer and wild boar in Germany: Is non-lead ammunition suitable for hunting?

Background: Non-lead hunting ammunition is an alternative to bullets that contain lead. The use of lead ammunition can result in severe contamination of game meat, thus posing a health risk to consumers. With any kind of ammunition for hunting, the terminal effectiveness of bullets is an animal welfare issue.

Impact of Network Activity on the Spread of Infectious Diseases through the German Pig Trade Network.

The trade of livestock is an important and growing economic sector, but it is also a major factor in the spread of diseases. The spreading of diseases in a trade network is likely to be influenced by how often existing trade connections are active. The activity α is defined as the mean frequency of occurrences of existing trade links, thus 0 < α ≤ 1.

Disease Spread through Animal Movements: A Static and Temporal Network Analysis of Pig Trade in Germany.

Background: Animal trade plays an important role for the spread of infectious diseases in livestock populations. The central question of this work is how infectious diseases can potentially spread via trade in such a livestock population. We address this question by analyzing the underlying network of animal movements.

Spatio-temporal analysis of fox rabies cases in Germany 2005-2006.

Aiming to achieve new insights into rabies dynamics, this paper is the first to investigate fox rabies in Germany from a space-time pattern perspective. Based on a locally restricted dataset covering a fourteen month period, our findings indicate a strongly aggregated spatiotemporal point pattern resulting from an inhomogeneous stochastic process. In contrast to spatial or temporal approaches or cellular automata, our analysis focuses on the disease dynamics in time and space in a continuous time domain.

The impact of zoonotic MRSA colonization and infection in Germany.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) causes colonization and infection both in animals and humans. In Germany, cases of MRSA colonization among humans, w+hich affect 0.5-1.

Cross-neutralization of antibodies induced by vaccination with Purified Chick Embryo Cell Vaccine (PCECV) against different Lyssavirus species.

Background: Rabies is a neglected zoonotic disease caused by viruses belonging to the genus lyssavirus. In endemic countries of Asia and Africa, where the majority of the estimated 60,000 human rabies deaths occur, it is mainly caused by the classical rabies virus (RABV) transmitted by dogs. Over the last decade new species within the genus lyssavirus have been identified.

The elimination of fox rabies from Europe: determinants of success and lessons for the future.

Despite perceived challenges to controlling an infectious disease in wildlife, oral rabies vaccination (ORV) of foxes has proved a remarkably successful tool and a prime example of a sophisticated strategy to eliminate disease from wildlife reservoirs. During the past three decades, the implementation of ORV programmes in 24 countries has led to the elimination of fox-mediated rabies from vast areas of Western and Central Europe. In this study, we evaluated the efficiency of 22 European ORV programmes between 1978 and 2010.

Case-control study on the risks of BSE infections in Northern Germany.

This study was to identify risk factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) by means of individual case-control data. 43 BSE cases in a defined region in Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein were compared with 84 control animals. Purchase of new breeding stock and cross contamination between feed on the farm did not seem to have influence on the BSE incidence in these regions.

Coherence of animal health, welfare and carcass quality in pork production chains.

Aim of the study was to measure the potential impact of animal health and welfare on the carcass quality. 99 pigs under equal housing and feeding conditions were involved in the study. Effects of the immune system on carcass composition, meat quality and performance data of slaughter pigs became measureable by quantification of acute phase proteins (APP), haptoglobin (Hp) and pig major acute phase protein (Pig-MAP).

Unfolding accessibility provides a macroscopic approach to temporal networks.

An accessibility graph of a network contains a link wherever there is a path of arbitrary length between two nodes. We generalize the concept of accessibility to temporal networks. Building an accessibility graph by consecutively adding paths of growing length (unfolding), we obtain information about the distribution of shortest path durations and characteristic time scales in temporal networks.

On the robustness of in- and out-components in a temporal network.

Background: Many networks exhibit time-dependent topologies, where an edge only exists during a certain period of time. The first measurements of such networks are very recent so that a profound theoretical understanding is still lacking. In this work, we focus on the propagation properties of infectious diseases in time-dependent networks.

Spread of infectious diseases in directed and modular metapopulation networks.

We consider epidemics in metapopulations on different network topologies. Recent work on epidemics on networks has focused on epidemics of humans. In this work we present a model for epidemics on directed networks, which are found, for example, in the livestock trade.

New insights into the genetics of EBLV-1 from Germany.

Previous epidemiological studies on EBLVs indicated a distinct geographical distribution of EBLV-1 in Germany. In this study, 48 isolates were selected to further investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of EBLV-1 variants in Germany. The nucleoprotein-gene (N), the nucleoprotein-phosphoprotein spanning untranslated region (NP-UTR) and the UTR between G- and L-gene of each isolate were sequenced using direct cycle sequencing.

Short-term interval baiting to combat the re-emergence of fox rabies in Rhineland Palatinate (Germany) in 2005.

In 2005, the final phase of terrestrial rabies eradication in Germany was put at risk by a severe setback due to re-introduction of the disease in Rhineland-Palatinate from neighbouring Hesse after seven years of absence. The rapid westward spread of the disease prompted veterinary authorities to react swiftly and apply a new yet unproven vaccination strategy to rapidly increase herd immunity in an almost unprotected fox population to stop the epidemic. The cornerstones of this emergency oral rabies vaccination strategy, i.

Elimination of terrestrial rabies in Germany using oral vaccination of foxes.

Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) has become the method of choice in fox rabies control in Europe. During the past three decades fox-mediated rabies virtually disappeared from Western and Central Europe. Following Switzerland, Germany was the second European country to launch ORV field trials on its territory in 1983.

Evaluation of a commercial rabies ELISA as a replacement for serum neutralization assays as part of the pet travel scheme and oral vaccination campaigns of foxes.

EU Regulation 998/2003 requires the serological testing of rabies-vaccinated dogs and cats in approved laboratories using serum neutralization tests prior to movement of pet animals between certain EU member states and before pet animals are imported from unlisted third countries. Serum neutralisation tests are also used for measuring the efficacy of oral rabies vaccination programmes conducted in wild carnivore populations. In this study we evaluated an OIE-listed commercial ELISA as a potential replacement for serum neutralization assays under routine conditions as a diagnostic tool for both the serological testing of dog and cat sera as part of pet travel schemes and for follow-up investigations as part of oral vaccination campaigns.

Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective.

BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries.