A complex systems model of breast cancer etiology: The Paradigm II Model.

Background: Complex systems models of breast cancer have previously focused on prediction of prognosis and clinical events for individual women. There is a need for understanding breast cancer at the population level for public health decision-making, for identifying gaps in epidemiologic knowledge and for the education of the public as to the complexity of this most common of cancers.

Methods And Findings: We developed an agent-based model of breast cancer for the women of the state of California using data from the U.

Exposure and Toxicity Characterization of Chemical Emissions and Chemicals in Products: Global Recommendations and Implementation in USEtox.

Purpose: Reducing chemical pressure on human and environmental health is an integral part of the global sustainability agenda. Guidelines for deriving globally applicable, life cycle based indicators are required to consistently quantify toxicity impacts from chemical emissions as well as from chemicals in consumer products. In response, we elaborate the methodological framework and present recommendations for advancing near-field/far-field exposure and toxicity characterization, and for implementing these recommendations in the scientific consensus model USEtox.

Global Effect Factors for Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter.

We evaluate fine particulate matter (PM) exposure-response models to propose a consistent set of global effect factors for product and policy assessments across spatial scales and across urban and rural environments. Relationships among exposure concentrations and PM-attributable health effects largely depend on location, population density, and mortality rates. Existing effect factors build mostly on an essentially linear exposure-response function with coefficients from the American Cancer Society study.

Advancements in Life Cycle Human Exposure and Toxicity Characterization.

Background: The Life Cycle Initiative, hosted at the United Nations Environment Programme, selected human toxicity impacts from exposure to chemical substances as an impact category that requires global guidance to overcome current assessment challenges. The initiative leadership established the Human Toxicity Task Force to develop guidance on assessing human exposure and toxicity impacts. Based on input gathered at three workshops addressing the main current scientific challenges and questions, the task force built a roadmap for advancing human toxicity characterization, primarily for use in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA).

Exposure Assessment For Air-To-Skin Uptake of Semivolatile Organic Compounds (SVOCs) Indoors.

Semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) are ubiquitous in the indoor environment and a priority for exposure assessment because of the environmental health concerns that they pose. Direct air-to-skin dermal uptake has been shown to be comparable to the inhalation intake for compounds with certain chemical properties. In this study, we aim to further understand the transport of these types of chemicals through the skin, specifically through the stratum corneum (SC).

Toward harmonizing ecotoxicity characterization in life cycle impact assessment.

Ecosystem quality is an important area of protection in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). Chemical pollution has adverse impacts on ecosystems on a global scale. To improve methods for assessing ecosystem impacts, the Life Cycle Initiative hosted by the United Nations Environment Programme established a task force to evaluate the state-of-the-science in modeling chemical exposure of organisms and the resulting ecotoxicological effects for use in LCIA.

Modeling the Emergence of Antibiotic Resistance in the Environment: an Analytical Solution for the Minimum Selection Concentration.

Environmental antibiotic risk management requires an understanding of how subinhibitory antibiotic concentrations contribute to the spread of resistance. We develop a simple model of competition between sensitive and resistant bacterial strains to predict the minimum selection concentration (MSC), the lowest level of antibiotic at which resistant bacteria are selected. We present an analytical solution for the MSC based on the routinely measured MIC, the selection coefficient () that expresses fitness differences between strains, the intrinsic net growth rate, and the shape of the bacterial growth dose-response curve with antibiotic or metal exposure (the Hill coefficient [κ]).

A multivariate analysis of CalEnviroScreen: comparing environmental and socioeconomic stressors versus chronic disease.

Background: The health-risk assessment paradigm is shifting from single stressor evaluation towards cumulative assessments of multiple stressors. Recent efforts to develop broad-scale public health hazard datasets provide an opportunity to develop and evaluate multiple exposure hazards in combination.

Methods: We performed a multivariate study of the spatial relationship between 12 indicators of environmental hazard, 5 indicators of socioeconomic hardship, and 3 health outcomes.

Characterizing Aggregated Exposure to Primary Particulate Matter: Recommended Intake Fractions for Indoor and Outdoor Sources.

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM) from indoor and outdoor sources is a leading environmental contributor to global disease burden. In response, we established under the auspices of the UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative a coupled indoor-outdoor emission-to-exposure framework to provide a set of consistent primary PM aggregated exposure factors. We followed a matrix-based mass balance approach for quantifying exposure from indoor and ground-level urban and rural outdoor sources using an effective indoor-outdoor population intake fraction and a system of archetypes to represent different levels of spatial detail.

Volatilization of low vapor pressure--volatile organic compounds (LVP-VOCs) during three cleaning products-associated activities: Potential contributions to ozone formation.

There have been many studies to reduce ozone formation mostly from volatile organic compound (VOC) sources. However, the role of low vapor pressure (LVP)-VOCs from consumer products remains mostly unexplored and unaddressed. This study explores the impact of high production volume LVP-VOCs on ozone formation from three cleaning products-associated activities (dishwashing, clothes washing, and surface cleaning).

Indoor Air Pollutant Exposure for Life Cycle Assessment: Regional Health Impact Factors for Households.

Human exposure to indoor pollutant concentrations is receiving increasing interest in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). We address this issue by incorporating an indoor compartment into the USEtox model, as well as by providing recommended parameter values for households in four different regions of the world differing geographically, economically, and socially. With these parameter values, intake fractions and comparative toxicity potentials for indoor emissions of dwellings for different air tightness levels were calculated.

Building a Human Health Risk Assessment Ontology (RsO): A Proposed Framework.

Over the last decade the health and environmental research communities have made significant progress in collecting and improving access to genomic, toxicology, exposure, health, and disease data useful to health risk assessment. One of the barriers to applying these growing volumes of information in fields such as risk assessment is the lack of informatics tools to organize, curate, and evaluate thousands of journal publications and hundreds of databases to provide new insights on relationships among exposure, hazard, and disease burden. Many fields are developing ontologies as a way of organizing and analyzing large amounts of complex information from multiple scientific disciplines.

Risk-Based High-Throughput Chemical Screening and Prioritization using Exposure Models and in Vitro Bioactivity Assays.

We present a risk-based high-throughput screening (HTS) method to identify chemicals for potential health concerns or for which additional information is needed. The method is applied to 180 organic chemicals as a case study. We first obtain information on how the chemical is used and identify relevant use scenarios (e.

Role of lignin in reducing life-cycle carbon emissions, water use, and cost for United States cellulosic biofuels.

Cellulosic ethanol can achieve estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions greater than 80% relative to gasoline, largely as a result of the combustion of lignin for process heat and electricity in biorefineries. Most studies assume lignin is combusted onsite, but exporting lignin to be cofired at coal power plants has the potential to substantially reduce biorefinery capital costs. We assess the life-cycle GHG emissions, water use, and capital costs associated with four representative biorefinery test cases.

Attributing population-scale human exposure to various source categories: merging exposure models and biomonitoring data.

Information about the distribution of chemical-production mass with respect to use and release is a major and unavailable input for calculating population-scale exposure estimates. Based on exposure models and biomonitoring data, this study evaluates the distribution of total production volumes (and environmental releases if applicable) for a suite of organic compounds. We used Bayesian approaches that take the total intake from our exposure models as the prior intake distribution and the intake inferred from measured biomarker concentrations in the NHANES survey as the basis for updating.

Phthalate exposure and risk assessment in California child care facilities.

Approximately 13 million U.S. children less than 6 years old spend some time in early childhood education (ECE) facilities where they may be exposed to potentially harmful chemicals during critical periods of development.

Tracking contributions to human body burden of environmental chemicals by correlating environmental measurements with biomarkers.

The work addresses current knowledge gaps regarding causes for correlations between environmental and biomarker measurements and explores the underappreciated role of variability in disaggregating exposure attributes that contribute to biomarker levels. Our simulation-based study considers variability in environmental and food measurements, the relative contribution of various exposure sources (indoors and food), and the biological half-life of a compound, on the resulting correlations between biomarker and environmental measurements. For two hypothetical compounds whose half-lives are on the order of days for one and years for the other, we generate synthetic daily environmental concentrations and food exposures with different day-to-day and population variability as well as different amounts of home- and food-based exposure.

Achieving deep cuts in the carbon intensity of U.S. automobile transportation by 2050: complementary roles for electricity and biofuels.

Passenger cars in the United States (U.S.) rely primarily on petroleum-derived fuels and contribute the majority of U.

Energy and human health.

Energy use is central to human society and provides many health benefits. But each source of energy entails some health risks. This article reviews the health impacts of each major source of energy, focusing on those with major implications for the burden of disease globally.