Radiocarbon test for demographic events in written and oral history.

We extend an established simulation-based method to test for significant short-duration (1-2 centuries) demographic events known from one documented historical and one oral historical context. Case study 1 extrapolates population data from the Western historical tradition using historically derived demographic data from the catastrophic European Black Death/bubonic plague (). We find a corresponding statistically significant drop in absolute population using an extended version of a previously published simulation method.