Publications by authors named "Thomas Hotz"

Real-time surveillance is a crucial element in the response to infectious disease outbreaks. However, the interpretation of incidence data is often hampered by delays occurring at various stages of data gathering and reporting. As a result, recent values are biased downward, which obscures current trends.

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Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022.

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Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021.

Methods: We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland.

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Motivation: DNA segmentation, i.e. the partitioning of DNA in compositionally homogeneous segments, is a basic task in bioinformatics.

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Based on a combination of jump segmentation and statistical multiresolution analysis for dependent data, a new approach called J-SMURF to idealize ion channel recordings has been developed. It is model-free in the sense that no a-priori assumptions about the channel’s characteristics have to be made; it thus complements existing methods which assume a model for the channel's dynamics, like hidden Markov models. The method accounts for the effect of an analog filter being applied before the data analysis, which results in colored noise, by adapting existing muliresolution statistics to this situation.

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Background: Patients with advanced lung cancer constitute a special focus in palliative care not only for epidemiological or prognostic reasons, but also because their symptom burden is felt to be widespread and difficult to treat. This study describes disease-specific characteristics and the symptom burden of patients with advanced incurable lung cancer, comparing them with patients suffering from other diseaseentities.

Methods: A secondary analysis of the nationwide Hospice and Palliative Care Evaluation (HOPE) was performed, by focussing on inpatient hospice and palliative care unit patients and by using descriptive methods.

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In recent years, the diffraction barrier in fluorescence imaging has been broken and optical nanoscopes now routinely image with resolutions of down to 20 nm, an improvement of more than 10 fold. Because this allows imaging much smaller features and because all super-resolution approaches trade off speed for spatial resolution, mechanical instabilities of the microscopes become a limiting factor. Here, we propose a fully data-driven statistical registration method for drift detection and drift correction for single marker switching (SMS) imaging schemes, including a guideline for parameter choice and quality checks of the drift analysis.

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Objective: This study was designed to investigate the specific type and incidence of implant failure in patients with a proximal femur fracture treated with a proximal femoral nail antirotation. This device has a helical-shaped blade as a neck-head holding device, instead of the lag screw used in other intramedullary nails. The advantage of the blade is believed to originate from bone impaction and a larger bone-implant interface in comparison with the lag screw design, with consequential greater mechanical resistance to torsion in the cancellous bone.

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Background: Fractures of the lateral clavicle result in a high rate of nonunion compared with midshaft fractures. Many operative treatment methods of unstable lateral clavicle fractures have been described, but no single method has become generally accepted. This study reports our experience treating unstable lateral clavicle fractures with coracoclavicular ligament rupture.

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Introduction: We present a case series of three patients with manubriosternal dislocation and/or sternal fractures.

Method: We describe our experiences of invasive surgical treatment with 3.5/4.

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Introduction: Penile constriction rings are either used for autoerotic stimulus or to increase sexual performance. Potentially, they can become irremovable and cause urologic emergencies.

Aim: We describe the successful removal of a 3.

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We propose an intrinsic multifactorial model for data on Riemannian manifolds that typically occur in the statistical analysis of shape. Due to the lack of a linear structure, linear models cannot be defined in general; to date only one-way MANOVA is available. For a general multifactorial model, we assume that variation not explained by the model is concentrated near elements defining the effects.

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Quadratic differentials naturally define analytic orientation fields on planar surfaces. We propose to model orientation fields of fingerprints by specifying quadratic differentials. Models for all fingerprint classes such as arches, loops and whorls are laid out.

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Background: Nonparasitic splenic cysts are rare. Therefore, there is no 'evidence-based' information regarding their optimal surgical management. In the last years the laparoscopic approach has gained increasing acceptance in splenic surgery.

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