Using Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and High Isolation of Asymptomatic Carriers to Contain the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Nursing Homes.

More than 40% of the deaths recorded in the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were linked to nursing homes. Not only are the residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) typically older and more susceptible to endemic infections, the facilities' high degree of connection to wider communities makes them especially vulnerable to local COVID-19 outbreaks. In 2008, in the wake of the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS epidemics and anticipating an influenza pandemic, we created a stochastic compartmental model to evaluate the deployment of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in LTCFs during influenza epidemics.

Preparing for the next influenza pandemic: lessons from multinational data.

Background: In the past decade, avian influenza has made several incursions of increasing scope and virulence into humans. The likelihood of another pandemic is increasing with time. In work recently published, influenza was found to be the principal cause of the increase in mortality in the United States during the winter months.

Impact of influenza vaccination on seasonal mortality in the US elderly population.

Background: Observational studies report that influenza vaccination reduces winter mortality risk from any cause by 50% among the elderly. Influenza vaccination coverage among elderly persons (> or =65 years) in the United States increased from between 15% and 20% before 1980 to 65% in 2001. Unexpectedly, estimates of influenza-related mortality in this age group also increased during this period.

Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999.

In economically developed countries, mortality increases distinctly during winter. Many causes have been suggested, including light-dark cycles, temperature/weather, and infectious agents. The authors analyzed monthly mortality in the United States during the period 1959-1999 for four major disease classes.

The Japanese program of vaccination of schoolchildren against influenza: implications for control of the disease.

In 1970, vaccination of the schoolchildren of the town of Tecumseh, MI, against influenza was shown to protect not only the children of the town, but all of its citizens from influenza-derived illness. Subsequently, models suggested that not only illness, but hospitalizations and mortality might be reduced as well. However, influenza control programs in developed countries focused on direct vaccination of the elderly.