Projected impact of Cervarix™ vaccination on oncogenic human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer in the United Kingdom.

We developed a dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of HPV Universal Mass Vaccination (UMV) with Cervarix™, which offers protection against HPV16/18 and cross-protection against other cancer-causing types, using up-to-date efficacy data. Analyses were performed in the UK because of the large amount of high quality epidemiological data available. For each HPV type/group of types considered, the model was calibrated to 14 epidemiological datasets (prevalence of HPV infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN): CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 pre-screening and cervical cancer (CC) incidence over 10 y post-screening).

A mathematical model of hepatitis a transmission in the United States indicates value of universal childhood immunization.

Background: US recommendations issued in 1999 for hepatitis A (HA) childhood immunization varied according to regional HA incidences prior to vaccination. Mathematical models of HA transmission, especially those accounting for herd protection, can be useful in formulating new, highly effective recommendations that could lead to disease elimination.

Methods: A mathematical model of HA transmission was designed to assess the impact of different vaccination strategies on the evolution of HA infection over time in the United States.