Reducing under-five mortality in Tanzania: insights from a 60-years data analysis on economic and health indicators.

Background: Under-five mortality in Tanzania remains a persistent issue, significantly affecting both the health and economic sectors. Despite various interventions, the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) remains high, impeding progress toward global health targets. This study investigates the factors influencing under-five mortality in Tanzania, focusing on the gross domestic product (GDP), malaria incidence, access to water, and access to sanitation.

Optimal control of a two-group malaria transmission model with vaccination.

Malaria is a vector-borne disease that poses major health challenges globally, with the highest burden in children less than 5 years old. Prevention and treatment have been the main interventions measures until the recent groundbreaking highly recommended malaria vaccine by WHO for children below five. A two-group malaria model structured by age with vaccination of individuals aged below 5 years old is formulated and theoretically analyzed.

Modelling COVID-19 in Senegal and China with count autoregressive models.

COVID-19 is a global health burden. We propose to model the dynamics of COVID-19 in Senegal and in China by count time series following generalized linear models. One of the main properties of these models is that they can detect potentials trends on the contagion dynamics within a given country.

Mathematical modeling and optimal control of SARS-CoV-2 and tuberculosis co-infection: a case study of Indonesia.

A new mathematical model incorporating epidemiological features of the co-dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) and SARS-CoV-2 is analyzed. Local asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria are shown for the sub-models when the respective reproduction numbers are below unity. Bifurcation analysis is carried out for the TB only sub-model, where it was shown that the sub-model undergoes forward bifurcation.

Dynamic of a two-strain COVID-19 model with vaccination.

COVID-19 is a respiratory illness caused by an ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus prone to mutations. In December 2020, variants with different characteristics that could affect transmissibility emerged around the world. To address this new dynamic of the disease, we formulate and analyze a mathematical model of a two-strain COVID-19 transmission dynamics with strain 1 vaccination.

HIV and COVID-19 co-infection: A mathematical model and optimal control.

A new mathematical model for COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS is considered to assess the impact of COVID-19 on HIV dynamics and vice-versa. Investigating the epidemiologic synergy between COVID-19 and HIV is important. The dynamics of the full model is driven by that of its sub-models; therefore, basic analysis of the two sub-models; HIV-only and COVID-19 only is carried out.

Modeling COVID-19 daily cases in Senegal using a generalized Waring regression model.

The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered substantial economic and social disruptions worldwide. The number of infection-induced deaths in Senegal in particular and West Africa in general are minimal when compared with the rest of the world. We use count regression (statistical) models such as the generalized Waring regression model to forecast the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Senegal.

Impact of Infective Immigrants on COVID-19 Dynamics.

The COVID-19 epidemic is an unprecedented and major social and economic challenge worldwide due to the various restrictions. Inflow of infective immigrants have not been given prominence in several mathematical and epidemiological models. To investigate the impact of imported infection on the number of deaths, cumulative infected and cumulative asymptomatic, we formulate a mathematical model with infective immigrants and considering vaccination.

Optimal control analysis of a COVID-19 and tuberculosis co-dynamics model.

Tuberculosis and COVID-19 are among the diseases with major global public health concern and great socio-economic impact. Co-infection of these two diseases is inevitable due to their geographical overlap, a potential double blow as their clinical similarities could hamper strategies to mitigate their spread and transmission dynamics. To theoretically investigate the impact of control measures on their long-term dynamics, we formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the co-infection of COVID-19 and tuberculosis.

A Mathematical Model of the Transmission Dynamics of Bovine Schistosomiasis with Contaminated Environment.

Schistosomiasis, a vector-borne chronically debilitating infectious disease, is a serious public health concern for humans and animals in the affected tropical and sub-tropical regions. We formulate and theoretically analyze a deterministic mathematical model with snail and bovine hosts. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed and used to investigate the local stability of the model's steady states.

Impact of environmental transmission and contact rates on Covid-19 dynamics: A simulation study.

The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a major social and economic challenge globally. Infections from infected surfaces have been identified as drivers of Covid-19 transmission, but many epidemiological models do not include an environmental component to account for indirect transmission. We formulate a deterministic Covid-19 model with both direct and indirect transmissions.

COVID-19 and dengue co-infection in Brazil: optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis.

A mathematical model for the co-interaction of COVID-19 and dengue transmission dynamics is formulated and analyzed. The sub-models are shown to be locally asymptotically stable when the respective reproduction numbers are below unity. Using available data sets, the model is fitted to the cumulative confirmed daily COVID-19 cases and deaths for Brazil () from February 1, 2021 to September 20, 2021.

A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 with Vaccination and Treatment.

We formulate and theoretically analyze a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission mechanism incorporating vital dynamics of the disease and two key therapeutic measures-vaccination of susceptible individuals and recovery/treatment of infected individuals. Both the disease-free and endemic equilibrium are globally asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number () is, respectively, less or greater than unity. The derived critical vaccination threshold is dependent on the vaccine efficacy for disease eradication whenever () > 1, even if vaccine coverage is high.

Malaria and COVID-19 co-dynamics: A mathematical model and optimal control.

Malaria, one of the longest-known vector-borne diseases, poses a major health problem in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Its complexity is currently being exacerbated by the emerging COVID-19 pandemic and the threats of its second wave and looming third wave. We formulate and analyze a mathematical model incorporating some epidemiological features of the co-dynamics of both malaria and COVID-19.

A Human-Bovine Schistosomiasis Mathematical Model with Treatment and Mollusciciding.

To mitigate the spread of schistosomiasis, a deterministic human-bovine mathematical model of its transmission dynamics accounting for contaminated water reservoirs, including treatment of bovines and humans and mollusciciding is formulated and theoretically analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], while global stability of the endemic equilibrium is investigated by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function. To support the analytical results, parameter values from published literature are used for numerical simulations and where applicable, uncertainty analysis on the non-dimensional system parameters is performed using the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient techniques.

A Mathematical Model for the Transmission Dynamics of Lymphatic Filariasis with Intervention Strategies.

This manuscript considers the transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis with some intervention strategies in place. Unlike previously developed models, our model takes into account both the exposed and infected classes in both the human and mosquito populations, respectively. We also consider vaccinated, treated and recovered humans in the presented model.

Mathematical analysis of a lymphatic filariasis model with quarantine and treatment.

Background: Lymphatic filariasis is a globally neglected tropical parasitic disease which affects individuals of all ages and leads to an altered lymphatic system and abnormal enlargement of body parts.

Methods: A mathematical model of lymphatic filariaris with intervention strategies is developed and analyzed. Control of infections is analyzed within the model through medical treatment of infected-acute individuals and quarantine of infected-chronic individuals.

A mathematical model of avian influenza with half-saturated incidence.

The widespread impact of avian influenza viruses not only poses risks to birds, but also to humans. The viruses spread from birds to humans and from human to human In addition, mutation in the primary strain will increase the infectiousness of avian influenza. We developed a mathematical model of avian influenza for both bird and human populations.

Mathematical studies on the sterile insect technique for the Chikungunya disease and Aedes albopictus.

Chikungunya is an arthropod-borne disease caused by the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus. It can be an important burden to public health and a great cause of morbidity and, sometimes, mortality. Understanding if and when disease control measures should be taken is key to curtail its spread.

A mathematical model of Rift Valley Fever with human host.

Rift Valley Fever is a vector-borne disease mainly transmitted by mosquito. To gain some quantitative insights into its dynamics, a deterministic model with mosquito, livestock, and human host is formulated as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations and analyzed. The disease threshold [Formula: see text] is computed and used to investigate the local stability of the equilibria.

Mathematical analysis of a cholera model with public health interventions.

Cholera, an acute gastro-intestinal infection and a waterborne disease continues to emerge in developing countries and remains an important global health challenge. We formulate a mathematical model that captures some essential dynamics of cholera transmission to study the impact of public health educational campaigns, vaccination and treatment as control strategies in curtailing the disease. The education-induced, vaccination-induced and treatment-induced reproductive numbers R(E), R(V), R(T) respectively and the combined reproductive number R(C) are compared with the basic reproduction number R(0) to assess the possible community benefits of these control measures.

Impact of imitation processes on the effectiveness of ring vaccination.

Ring vaccination can be a highly effective control strategy for an emerging disease or in the final phase of disease eradication, as witnessed in the eradication of smallpox. However, the impact of behavioural dynamics on the effectiveness of ring vaccination has not been explored in mathematical models. Here, we analyze a series of stochastic models of voluntary ring vaccination.

The impact of media coverage on the transmission dynamics of human influenza.

Background: There is an urgent need to understand how the provision of information influences individual risk perception and how this in turn shapes the evolution of epidemics. Individuals are influenced by information in complex and unpredictable ways. Emerging infectious diseases, such as the recent swine flu epidemic, may be particular hotspots for a media-fueled rush to vaccination; conversely, seasonal diseases may receive little media attention, despite their high mortality rate, due to their perceived lack of newness.

A mathematical model for antimalarial drug resistance.

We formulate and analyze a mathematical model for malaria with treatment and the well-known three levels of resistance in humans. The model incorporates both sensitive and resistant strains of the parasites. Analytical results reveal that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (co-existence of a stable disease-free equilibrium with a stable endemic equilibrium), an epidemiological situation where although necessary, having the basic reproduction number less than unity, it is not sufficient for disease elimination.