Household Transmission Dynamics of Seasonal Human Coronaviruses.

Background: Household transmission studies inform how viruses spread among close contacts, but few characterize household transmission of endemic coronaviruses.

Methods: We used data collected from 223 households with school-age children participating in weekly disease surveillance over 2 respiratory virus seasons (December 2015 to May 2017), to describe clinical characteristics of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HcoV-HKU1, HcoV-NL63, HcoV-OC43) infections, and community and household transmission probabilities using a chain-binomial model correcting for missing data from untested households.

Results: Among 947 participants in 223 households, we observed 121 infections during the study, most commonly subtype HCoV-OC43.

Limitations introduced by a low participation rate of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence data.

Background: There has been a large influx of COVID-19 seroprevalence studies, but comparability between the seroprevalence estimates has been an issue because of heterogeneities in testing platforms and study methodology. One potential source of heterogeneity is the response or participation rate.

Methods: We conducted a review of participation rates (PR) in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies collected by SeroTracker and examined their effect on the validity of study conclusions.

Disparities Made Invisible: Gaps in COVID-19 Data for American Indian and Alaska Native Populations.

Introduction: Complete COVID-19 data for American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations are critical to equitable pandemic response.

Methods: We used the COVID-19 U.S.

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

Background: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research.

Predicting virologically confirmed influenza using school absences in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, USA during the 2007-2015 influenza seasons.

Background: Children are important in community-level influenza transmission. School-based monitoring may inform influenza surveillance.

Methods: We used reported weekly confirmed influenza in Allegheny County during the 2007 and 2010-2015 influenza seasons using Pennsylvania's Allegheny County Health Department all-age influenza cases from health facilities, and all-cause and influenza-like illness (ILI)-specific absences from nine county school districts.

Estimating incidence of infection from diverse data sources: Zika virus in Puerto Rico, 2016.

Emerging epidemics are challenging to track. Only a subset of cases is recognized and reported, as seen with the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic where large proportions of infection were asymptomatic. However, multiple imperfect indicators of infection provide an opportunity to estimate the underlying incidence of infection.

Viral etiology and seasonal trends of pediatric acute febrile illness in southern Puerto Rico; a seven-year review.

Background: Acute febrile illness (AFI) is an important cause for seeking health care among children. Knowledge of the most common etiologic agents of AFI and its seasonality is limited in most tropical regions.

Methodology/principal Findings: To describe the viral etiology of AFI in pediatric patients (≤18 years) recruited through a sentinel enhanced dengue surveillance system (SEDSS) in Southern Puerto Rico, we analyzed data for patients enrolled from 2012 to May 2018.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms.

Importance: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is readily transmitted person to person. Optimal control of COVID-19 depends on directing resources and health messaging to mitigation efforts that are most likely to prevent transmission, but the relative importance of such measures has been disputed.

Objective: To assess the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions in the community that likely occur from persons without symptoms.

Using serological measures to estimate influenza incidence in the presence of secular trends in exposure and immuno-modulation of antibody response.

Background: Influenza infection is often measured by a fourfold antibody titer increase over an influenza season (ie seroconversion). However, this approach may fail when influenza seasons are less distinct as it does not account for transient effects from recent infections. Here, we present a method to determine seroconversion for non-paired sera, adjusting for changes in individuals' antibody titers to influenza due to the transient impact of recent exposures, varied sampling times, and laboratory processes.

Epidemiologic and spatiotemporal trends of Zika Virus disease during the 2016 epidemic in Puerto Rico.

Background: After Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Americas, laboratory-based surveillance for arboviral diseases in Puerto Rico was adapted to include ZIKV disease.

Methods And Findings: Suspected cases of arboviral disease reported to Puerto Rico Department of Health were tested for evidence of infection with Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses by RT-PCR and IgM ELISA. To describe spatiotemporal trends among confirmed ZIKV disease cases, we analyzed the relationship between municipality-level socio-demographic, climatic, and spatial factors, and both time to detection of the first ZIKV disease case and the midpoint of the outbreak.

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.

Recent influenza activity in tropical Puerto Rico has become synchronized with mainland US.

Background: We used data from the Sentinel Enhanced Dengue Surveillance System (SEDSS) to describe influenza trends in southern Puerto Rico during 2012-2018 and compare them to trends in the United States.

Methods: Patients with fever onset ≤ 7 days presenting were enrolled. Nasal/oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza A and B viruses by PCR.

A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern.

Introduction: Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was.

Methods: To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines.

Age- and sex-related risk factors for influenza-associated mortality in the United States between 1997-2007.

Limited information on age- and sex-specific estimates of influenza-associated death with different underlying causes is currently available. We regressed weekly age- and sex-specific US mortality outcomes underlying several causes between 1997 and 2007 to incidence proxies for influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B that combine data on influenza-like illness consultations and respiratory specimen testing, adjusting for seasonal baselines and time trends. Adults older than 75 years of age had the highest average annual rate of influenza-associated mortality, with 141.

The role of disease surveillance in achieving IHR compliance by 2012.

The World Health Organization's revised International Health Regulations (IHR (2005)) call for member state compliance by mid-2012. Variation in disease surveillance and core public health capacities will affect each member state's ability to meet this deadline. We report on topics presented at the preconference workshop, "The Interaction of Disease Surveillance and the International Health Regulations," held at the 2010 International Society for Disease Surveillance conference in Park City, Utah.

Malaria and other vector-borne infection surveillance in the U.S. Department of Defense Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center-Global Emerging Infections Surveillance program: review of 2009 accomplishments.

Vector-borne infections (VBI) are defined as infectious diseases transmitted by the bite or mechanical transfer of arthropod vectors. They constitute a significant proportion of the global infectious disease burden. United States (U.