Revisiting assessment factors for species sensitivity distributions as a function of sample size and variation in species sensitivity.

To use species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for ecological risk assessment, there are various uncertainties, which require applying assessment factors (AFs) accordingly. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty of estimating statistical distributions. Given a management goal of protecting 95% of species, the concentration that affects 5% of the species (HC5) is estimated.

Quantitative analyses of misclassification rates in the hazard classification of environmental chemicals: Evaluation of procedures for deriving predicted no-effect concentrations in the Chemical Substance Control Law in Japan.

The quality of chemical management depends more or less on practical procedures used to assess chemicals. This study quantitatively assessed the efficacy of a derivation procedure for calculating no-effect concentrations for screening assessment of environmental hazards under the Chemical Substance Control Law in Japan. We first evaluated the derivation procedure by applying a series of test ecotoxicity datasets to the procedure and calculating the resulting misclassification rates of the hazardous class of chemicals.

Illustrating a Species Sensitivity Distribution for Nano- and Microplastic Particles Using Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling.

Environmental contamination with nano- and microplastic (NMP) particles is an emerging global concern. The derivation of species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) is an essential step in estimating a hazardous concentration for 5% of the species (HC5), and this HC5 value is often used as a "safe" concentration in ecological risk assessment, that is, predicted-no-effect concentration. Although properties of plastics such as particle size can affect toxic effect concentrations, such influences have not yet been quantitatively considered in estimating SSDs for NMP particles.

What do we want to estimate from observational datasets? Choosing appropriate statistical analysis methods based on the chemical management phase.

The goals of observational dataset analysis vary with the management phase of environments threatened by anthropogenic chemicals. For example, identifying severely compromised sites is necessary to determine candidate sites in which to implement measures during early management phases. Among the most effective approaches is developing regression models with high predictive power for dependent variable values using the Akaike information criterion.

Population model analyses of the combined effects of insecticide use and habitat degradation on the past sharp declines of the dragonfly Sympetrum frequens.

In recent decades, many dragonfly species have become threatened with extinction. For example, populations of Sympetrum frequens, one of the most common dragonflies in rice paddy fields in Japan, decreased sharply around the late 1990s in many regions. Although previous studies suggested that the use of systemic insecticides (particularly fipronil) was likely a major cause of the decline, agronomic factors other than insecticide use and the combined effects of both have been not examined.

Author Correction: Investigating effect of climate warming on the population declines of Sympetrum frequens during the 1990s in three regions in Japan.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Reviews on common objectives and evaluation indicators for risk communication activities from 2011 to 2017.

Background: Risk communication is widely accepted as a significant factor for policy makers, academic researchers, and practitioners in diverse fields. However, there remains a lack of comprehensive knowledge about how risk communication is currently conducted across fields and about the way risk communication is evaluated.

Methodology: This study systematically searched for materials from three scholarly search engines and one journal with a single search term of "risk communication.

The effect of intervention in nickel concentrations on benthic macroinvertebrates: A case study of statistical causal inference in ecotoxicology.

Field survey-based ecological risk assessments for trace metals are conducted to examine the necessity and/or effectiveness of management intervention, such as setting of environmental quality standards. Observational datasets often involve confounders that may bias estimation of the effects of intervention (e.g.

Investigating effect of climate warming on the population declines of Sympetrum frequens during the 1990s in three regions in Japan.

Climate warming is of concern as a key factor in the worldwide decline in insect populations. In Japan, numbers of a common dragonfly in rice paddy fields, Sympetrum frequens, decreased sharply in the 1990s. Because S.

Evaluation of interregional consistency in associations between neonicotinoid insecticides and functions of benthic invertebrate communities in rivers in urban rice-paddy areas.

Neonicotinoid insecticides pose risks that need to be managed for conservation of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated the associations between the estimated environmental concentrations of two neonicotinoid insecticides (imidacloprid and dinotefuran) and the total abundances of seven functional feeding groups (FFGs) of benthic invertebrate communities in rivers in urban rice-paddy areas in four Japanese regions. Regional datasets of benthic invertebrate communities and environmental variables available for Japan were analyzed.

Effects of systemic insecticides on the population dynamics of the dragonfly Sympetrum frequens in Japan: Statistical analyses using field census data from 2009 to 2016.

Since the mid-1990s, populations of the common Japanese dragonfly Sympetrum frequens in rice fields have declined severely. Application of systemic insecticides-especially fipronil-to nursery boxes of rice seedlings is suspected to be the main cause of the decline. However, until now there have been insufficient population data to test the causality.

Georeferenced multimedia environmental fate of volatile methylsiloxanes modeled in the populous Tokyo Bay catchment basin.

We investigated the multimedia fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6) in the densely populated catchment basin of Tokyo Bay, Japan, by using a georeferenced multimedia model. We estimated the daily per person consumption rate of these compounds in Japan according to literature. Emissions to the atmosphere accounted for almost all of the emissions of these compounds to the environment.

Model construction for estimating potential vulnerability of Japanese soils to cadmium pollution based on intact soil properties.

Prediction of heavy metal bioavailability in intact soil is important to manage soil pollution risks. We developed a regression model for representative Japanese soils to judge their potential vulnerability to cadmium (Cd) pollution. We added four rates of Cd to 17 sample soils to mimic artificial contamination.

Associations of Community Structure and Functions of Benthic Invertebrates with Nickel Concentrations: Analyses from Field Surveys.

Field surveys provide valuable empirical information about the effects of heavy metals on the biological integrity of river ecosystems. To evaluate the effect of nickel (Ni) on aquatic organisms, we conducted field surveys of benthic invertebrates and Ni concentrations at 45 sites in 19 rivers in Japan. We examined the relationships between 11 structural or functional measures of benthic invertebrate communities and free Ni ion concentrations with a 90th quantile regression model.

Were the sharp declines of dragonfly populations in the 1990s in Japan caused by fipronil and imidacloprid? An analysis of Hill's causality for the case of Sympetrum frequens.

Neonicotinoids and fipronil are the most widely used insecticides in the world. Previous studies showed that these compounds have high toxicity to a wide taxonomic range of non-target invertebrates. In rice cultivation, they are frequently used for nursery-box treatment of rice seedlings.

Fipronil application on rice paddy fields reduces densities of common skimmer and scarlet skimmer.

Several reports suggested that rice seedling nursery-box application of some systemic insecticides (neonicotinoids and fipronil) is the cause of the decline in dragonfly species noted since the 1990s in Japan. We conducted paddy mesocosm experiments to investigate the effect of the systemic insecticides clothianidin, fipronil and chlorantraniliprole on rice paddy field biological communities. Concentrations of all insecticides in the paddy water were reduced to the limit of detection within 3 months after application.

Ecological risk assessment of herbicides in Japan: Integrating spatiotemporal variation in exposure and effects using a multimedia model and algal density dynamics models.

Application of herbicides to paddy fields in Japan has strong seasonality, and their environmental concentrations exhibit clear spatiotemporal variation. The authors developed an approach that combines a multimedia environmental exposure model (Grid-Catchment Integrated Modeling System) and density dynamics models for algae. This approach enabled assessment of ecological risk when the exposure concentration shows spatiotemporal variation.

Estimating population-level HC5 for copper using a species sensitivity distribution approach.

Estimation of population-level benchmark concentrations for protecting aquatic organisms from chemicals is important for value-relevant ecological risk assessments. By employing a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) approach, the authors aimed to derive the population-level hazardous concentration for 5% of species (PHC5) for copper. Based on available information on copper toxicity and population models, the authors estimated population threshold concentrations at which the population size is stable (that is, 0 net population growth) for 13 freshwater species (3 algal, 6 invertebrate, and 4 fish species).

Applying biotic ligand models and Bayesian techniques: ecological risk assessment of copper and nickel in Tokyo rivers.

Biotic ligand models (BLMs) have been broadly accepted and used in ecological risk assessment of heavy metals for toxicity normalization with respect to water chemistry. However, the importance of assessing bioavailability by using BLMs has not been widely recognized among Japanese stakeholders. Failing to consider bioavailability may result in less effective risk management than would be possible if currently available state-of-the-art methods were used to relate bioavailable concentrations to toxic effects.

A Bayesian approach to probabilistic ecological risk assessment: risk comparison of nine toxic substances in Tokyo surface waters.

Background, Aim, And Scope: Quantitative risk comparison of toxic substances is necessary to decide which substances should be prioritized to achieve effective risk management. This study compared the ecological risk among nine major toxic substances (ammonia, bisphenol-A, chloroform, copper, hexavalent chromium, lead, manganese, nickel, and zinc) in Tokyo surface waters by adopting an integrated risk analysis procedure using Bayesian statistics.

Methods: Species sensitivity distributions of these substances were derived by using four Bayesian models.