Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices.

Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g.

Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications.

Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions.

Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines.

Evaluation of Two Approaches to Defining Extinction Risk under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion.

Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse.

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world.

Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants.

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses.

Choice of biodiversity index drives optimal fire management decisions.

Preservation of biodiversity is a central goal of conservation management, yet the conditions that promote persistence may differ for the species in the community. For systems subject to stochastic disturbances such as fire, understanding which management practices promote persistence for all species in a community is complex. Before deciding on the best course of action, an objective must be specified.

Combined Influences of Model Choice, Data Quality, and Data Quantity When Estimating Population Trends.

Estimating and projecting population trends using population viability analysis (PVA) are central to identifying species at risk of extinction and for informing conservation management strategies. Models for PVA generally fall within two categories, scalar (count-based) or matrix (demographic). Model structure, process error, measurement error, and time series length all have known impacts in population risk assessments, but their combined impact has not been thoroughly investigated.

A practical guide to the application of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria.

The newly developed IUCN Red List of Ecosystems is part of a growing toolbox for assessing risks to biodiversity, which addresses ecosystems and their functioning. The Red List of Ecosystems standard allows systematic assessment of all freshwater, marine, terrestrial and subterranean ecosystem types in terms of their global risk of collapse. In addition, the Red List of Ecosystems categories and criteria provide a technical base for assessments of ecosystem status at the regional, national, or subnational level.

Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN Red List criteria.

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning.

Scientific foundations for an IUCN Red List of ecosystems.

An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems.

Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case-by-case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious.

Fire management to combat disease: turning interactions between threats into conservation management.

As the number and intensity of threats to biodiversity increase, there is a critical need to investigate interactions between threats and manage populations accordingly. We ask whether it is possible to reduce the effects of one threat by mitigating another. We used long-term data for the long-lived resprouter, Xanthorrhoea resinosa Pers.

Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant.

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits.

Glycation end-product cross-link breaker reduces collagen and improves cardiac function in aging diabetic heart.

Aging and diabetes mellitus (DM) both affect the structure and function of the myocardium, resulting in increased collagen in the heart and reduced cardiac function. As part of this process, hyperglycemia is a stimulus for the production of advanced glycation end products (AGEs), which covalently modify proteins and impair cell function. The goals of this study were first to examine the combined effects of aging and DM on hemodynamics and collagen types in the myocardium in 12 dogs, 9-12 yr old, and second to examine the effects of the AGE cross-link breaker phenyl-4,5-dimethylthazolium chloride (ALT-711) on myocardial collagen protein content, aortic stiffness, and left ventricular (LV) function in the aged diabetic heart.

Alcoholic cardiomyopathy: is it dose-dependent?

Alcohol is a known myocardial depressant. In a dose-dependent fashion, one can show progressive decline in left ventricular systolic function. This observation has been used to implicate alcohol as a major cause of up to 30% of all dilated cardiomyopathies.

Spectroscopic identification and direct imaging of interfacial magnetic spins.

Using x-ray absorption spectromicroscopy we have imaged the uncompensated spins induced at the surface of antiferromagnetic (AFM) NiO(100) by deposition of ferromagnetic (FM) Co. These spins align parallel to the AFM spins in NiO(100) and align the FM spins in Co. The uncompensated interfacial spins arise from an ultrathin CoNiOx layer that is formed upon Co deposition through reduction of the NiO surface.

Nonplatelet effects of aspirin during acute coronary occlusion: electrophysiologic and cation alterations in ischemic myocardium.

Background: Mortality after acute myocardial ischemia has been reduced by aspirin (ASA) but mechanisms other than the antiplatelet effect have not been established. This article evaluates an antiarrhythmic action during sympathetic stimulation in the intact anesthetized dog with and without ischemia.

Methods And Results: The ventricular fibrillation threshold (VFT) was examined before and after epinephrine (E) in normals (group I).

An advanced glycation endproduct cross-link breaker can reverse age-related increases in myocardial stiffness.

Decreased elasticity of the cardiovascular system is one of the hallmarks of the normal aging process of mammals. A potential explanation for this decreased elasticity is that glucose can react nonenzymatically with long-lived proteins, such as collagen and lens crystallin, and link them together, producing advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs). Previous studies have shown that aminoguanidine, an AGE inhibitor, can prevent glucose cross-linking of proteins and the loss of elasticity associated with aging and diabetes.

Effects of Metformin on Collagen Glycation and Diastolic Dysfunction in Diabetic Myocardium.

BACKGROUND: Collagen accumulation in the myocardial interstitium of diabetic animals is considered to promote diastolic stiffness through advanced glycosylation. Because in vitro data suggest that metformin can modify glycosylation, this study was undertaken in a canine diabetic model 4 months in duration. METHODS AND RESULTS: Untreated diabetics (group II) and diabetics treated with metformin alone (group III) or with insulin (group IV) were compared in the basal state and during volume infusion.

Effects of glucose intolerance on myocardial function and collagen-linked glycation.

In experimental diabetes, diastolic dysfunction of the left ventricle has been associated with collagen-linked glycation. To determine whether less severe hyperglycemia may have similar effects, we gave alloxan to mongrel dogs (group 2) to induce impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) for comparison with normal subjects (group 1). After 6 months, hemodynamic studies were performed in the anesthetized animals.