Process-Informed Subsampling Improves Subseasonal Rainfall Forecasts in Central America.

Subseasonal rainfall forecast skill is critical to support preparedness for hydrometeorological extremes. We assess how a process-informed evaluation, which subsamples forecasting model members based on their ability to represent potential predictors of rainfall, can improve monthly rainfall forecasts within Central America in the following month, using Costa Rica and Guatemala as test cases. We generate a constrained ensemble mean by subsampling 130 members from five dynamic forecasting models in the C3S multimodel ensemble based on their representation of both (a) zonal wind direction and (b) Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), at the time of initialization.

[Infants with an unexplained event: management of brief resolved unexplained events revised].

In this article, the new Dutch pediatric guideline Brief Resolved Unexplained Event is discussed, which replaces the old guideline Apparent Life Threatening Event. The main goal of the new guideline is identification of a group of low-risk infants who need not be admitted to the hospital and in which only limited diagnostic workup is indicated. Three fictional cases are presented to highlight the major changes in management of infants who present with an unexplained event.

Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China.

Previous analyses of the possibility of global breadbasket failures have extrapolated risks based on historical relationships between climate and yields. However, climate change is causing unprecedented events globally, which could exceed critical thresholds and reduce yields, even if there is no historical precedent. This means that we are likely underestimating climate risks to our food system.

[An infant with a complicated infection of the umbilicus].

Background: An umbilical infection (omphalitis) is frequent in de neonatal period. The infection usually presents as a relatively mild cellulitis. However, in rare cases omphalitis has a complicated course.

The Role of Cell Tracing and Fate Mapping Experiments in Cardiac Outflow Tract Development, New Opportunities through Emerging Technologies.

Whilst knowledge regarding the pathophysiology of congenital heart disease (CHDs) has advanced greatly in recent years, the underlying developmental processes affecting the cardiac outflow tract (OFT) such as bicuspid aortic valve, tetralogy of Fallot and transposition of the great arteries remain poorly understood. Common among CHDs affecting the OFT, is a large variation in disease phenotypes. Even though the different cell lineages contributing to OFT development have been studied for many decades, it remains challenging to relate cell lineage dynamics to the morphologic variation observed in OFT pathologies.