Changes in isolation guidelines for CPE patients results in only mild reduction in required hospital beds.

Background: Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) are an emerging public health concern globally as they are resistant to a broad spectrum of antibiotics. Colonisation with CPE typically requires patients to be managed under 'contact precautions', which creates additional physical bed demands in healthcare facilities.

Methods: This study examined the potential impact of revised isolation guidelines introduced in late 2023 in Victoria, Australia, that relaxed the requirement for indefinite isolation of CPE-colonised patients in contact precautions, based on admission of CPE-diagnosed cases prior to the guideline change.

Carbapenemase-producing enterobacterales colonisation status does not lead to more frequent admissions: a linked patient study.

Background: Hospitals in any given region can be considered as part of a network, where facilities are connected to one another - and hospital pathogens potentially spread - through the movement of patients between them. We sought to describe the hospital admission patterns of patients known to be colonised with carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE), and compare them with CPE-negative patient cohorts, matched on comorbidity information.

Methods: We performed a linkage study in Victoria, Australia, including datasets with notifiable diseases (CPE notifications) and hospital admissions (admission dates and diagnostic codes) for the period 2011 to 2020.

Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 fitness gains from genomic surveillance data without prior lineage classification.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased fitness has had a strong impact on the epidemiology of COVID-19, with the higher effective reproduction number of the viral variants leading to new epidemic waves. Tracking such variants and their genetic signatures, using data collected through genomic surveillance, is therefore crucial for forecasting likely surges in incidence. Current methods of estimating fitness advantages of variants rely on tracking the changing proportion of a particular lineage over time, but describing successful lineages in a rapidly evolving viral population is a difficult task.

Model-based evaluation of admission screening strategies for the detection and control of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in the English hospital setting.

Background: Globally, detections of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) colonisations and infections are increasing. The spread of these highly resistant bacteria poses a serious threat to public health. However, understanding of CPE transmission and evidence on effectiveness of control measures is severely lacking.

Forecasting local hospital bed demand for COVID-19 using on-request simulations.

Accurate forecasting of hospital bed demand is crucial during infectious disease epidemics to avoid overwhelming healthcare facilities. To address this, we developed an intuitive online tool for individual hospitals to forecast COVID-19 bed demand. The tool utilizes local data, including incidence, vaccination, and bed occupancy data, at customizable geographical resolutions.