Real-time estimation of immunological responses against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the UK: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 vaccination have resulted in complex exposure histories. Rapid assessment of the effects of these exposures on neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for informing vaccine strategy and epidemic management. We aimed to investigate heterogeneity in individual-level and population-level antibody kinetics to emerging variants by previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure history, to examine implications for real-time estimation, and to examine the effects of vaccine-campaign timing.

COVID-19 in non-hospitalised adults caused by either SARS-CoV-2 sub-variants Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5 or Delta associates with similar illness duration, symptom severity and viral kinetics, irrespective of vaccination history.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron rapidly evolved over 2022, causing three waves of infection due to sub-variants BA.1, BA.2 and BA.