Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates.

The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas.

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily.

Interactions between abiotic constraint, propagule pressure, and biotic resistance regulate plant invasion.

With multiple species introductions and rapid global changes, there is a need for comprehensive invasion models that can predict community responses. Evidence suggests that abiotic constraint, propagule pressure, and biotic resistance of resident species each determine plant invasion success, yet their interactions are rarely tested. To understand these interactions, we conducted community assembly experiments simulating situations in which seeds of the invasive grass species Phragmites australis (Poaceae) land on bare soil along with seeds of resident wetland plant species.

Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate.

Moving from a regional to a continental perspective of Phragmites australis invasion in North America.

Aims: We use a regional comparison of Phragmites australis (common reed) subsp. americanus, P. australis subsp.

Balancing shifting cultivation and forest conservation: lessons from a "sustainable landscape" in southeastern Mexico.

Shifting cultivation is often perceived to be a threat to forests, but it is also central to the culture and livelihoods of millions of people worldwide. Balancing agriculture and forest conservation requires knowledge of how agricultural land uses evolve in landscapes with forest conservation initiatives. Based on a case study from Quintana Roo, Mexico, and remote sensing data, we investigated land use and land cover change (LUCC) in relation to accessibility (from main settlement and road) in search of evidence for agricultural expansion and/or intensification after the initiation of a community forestry program in 1986.

Pollination and reproduction of a self-incompatible forest herb in hedgerow corridors and forest patches.

Habitat-corridors are assumed to counteract the negative impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation, but their efficiency in doing so depends on the maintenance of ecological processes in corridor conditions. For plants dispersing in linear habitats, one of these critical processes is the maintenance of adequate pollen transfer to insure seed production within the corridor. This study focuses on a common, self-incompatible forest herb, Trillium grandiflorum, to assess plant-pollinator interactions and the influence of spatial processes on plant reproduction in hedgerow corridors compared to forests.

Herbaceous covers to control tree invasion in rights-of-way: ecological concepts and applications.

In northeastern America, thousands of kilometers of utility rights-of-way (ROWs) have to be managed to prevent the establishment of a tall vegetation cover that does not comply with safety and maintenance regulations. Recent decades have seen the emergence of ecologically based vegetation control strategies to reduce environmental impacts as well as maintenance costs. One such strategy is to take advantage of competitive herbaceous covers to limit tree invasion.