Scenarios for the Altamira cave CO concentration from 1950 to 2100.

A data-driven approach insensitive to the initial conditions was developed to extract governing equations for the concentration of CO in the Altamira cave (Spain) and its two main drivers: the outside temperature and the soil moisture. This model was then reformulated in order to use satellite observations and meteorological predictions, as a forcing. The concentration of CO inside the cave was then investigated from 1950 to 2100 under various scenarios.

Optimal placement of sensor and actuator for controlling low-dimensional chaotic systems based on global modeling.

Controlling chaos is fundamental in many applications, and for this reason, many techniques have been proposed to address this problem. Here, we propose a strategy based on an optimal placement of the sensor and actuator providing global observability of the state space and global controllability to any desired state. The first of these two conditions enables the derivation of a model of the system by using a global modeling technique.

COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact.

The epidemic of COVID-19 has shown different developments in Africa compared to the other continents. Three different approaches were used in this study to analyze this situation. In the first part, basic statistics were performed to estimate the contribution of the elderly people to the total numbers of cases and deaths in comparison to the other continents; Similarly, the health systems capacities were analysed to assess the level of underreporting.

Topological characterization of toroidal chaos: A branched manifold for the Deng toroidal attractor.

When a chaotic attractor is produced by a three-dimensional strongly dissipative system, its ultimate characterization is reached when a branched manifold-a template-can be used to describe the relative organization of the unstable periodic orbits around which it is structured. If topological characterization was completed for many chaotic attractors, the case of toroidal chaos-a chaotic regime based on a toroidal structure-is still challenging. We here investigate the topology of toroidal chaos, first by using an inductive approach, starting from the branched manifold for the Rössler attractor.

Observability of laminar bidimensional fluid flows seen as autonomous chaotic systems.

Lagrangian transport in the dynamical systems approach has so far been investigated disregarding the connection between the whole state space and the concept of observability. Key issues such as the definitions of Lagrangian and chaotic mixing are revisited under this light, establishing the importance of rewriting nonautonomous flow systems derived from a stream function in autonomous form, and of not restricting the characterization of their dynamics in subspaces. The observability of Lagrangian chaos from a reduced set of measurements is illustrated with two canonical examples: the Lorenz system derived as a low-dimensional truncation of the Rayleigh-Bénard convection equations and the driven double-gyre system introduced as a kinematic model of configurations observed in the ocean.

Can the original equations of a dynamical system be retrieved from observational time series?

The aim of the present work is to investigate the possibility to retrieve the original sets of dynamical equations directly from observational time series when all the system variables are observed. Time series are generated from chosen dynamical systems, and the global modeling technique is applied to obtain optimal models of parsimonious structure from these time series. The obtained models are then compared to the original equations to investigate if the original equations can be retrieved.

Using global modeling to unveil hidden couplings in small network motifs.

One of the main tasks in network theory is to infer relations among interacting elements. We propose global modeling as a tool to detect links between nodes and their nature. Various situations using small network motifs are investigated under the assumption that the variable to be measured at each node provides full observability when isolated.

Topological characterization versus synchronization for assessing (or not) dynamical equivalence.

Model validation from experimental data is an important and not trivial topic which is too often reduced to a simple visual inspection of the state portrait spanned by the variables of the system. Synchronization was suggested as a possible technique for model validation. By means of a topological analysis, we revisited this concept with the help of an abstract chemical reaction system and data from two electrodissolution experiments conducted by Jack Hudson's group.

How tumor growth can be influenced by delayed interactions between cancer cells and the microenvironment?

Although recent advances in oncology emphasized the role of microenvironment in tumor growth, the role of delays for modeling tumor growth is still uncertain. In this paper, we considered a model, describing the interactions of tumor cells with their microenvironment made of immune cells and host cells, in which we inserted, as suggested by the clinicians, two time delays, one in the interactions between tumor cells and immune cells and, one in the action of immune cells on tumor cells. We showed analytically that the singular point associated with the co-existence of the three cell populations loses its stability via a Hopf bifurcation.

A chaotic model for the epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa (2013-2016).

An epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) broke out in Guinea in December 2013. It was only identified in March 2014 while it had already spread out in Liberia and Sierra Leone. The spill over of the disease became uncontrollable and the epidemic could not be stopped before 2016.

Two chaotic global models for cereal crops cycles observed from satellite in northern Morocco.

The dynamics underlying cereal crops in the northern region of Morocco is investigated using a global modelling technique applied to a vegetation index time series derived from satellite measurements, namely, the normalized difference vegetation index from 1982 to 2008. Two three-dimensional chaotic global models of reduced size (14-term and 15-term models) are obtained. The model validation is performed by comparing their horizons of predictability with those provided in previous studies.