A simulation of Johne's disease control.

A dynamic and stochastic simulation model (the "JohneSSim model") was developed to evaluate the economic and epidemiological effects of different strategies for control of paratuberculosis in dairy herds. Animals occupy one of the six defined infection states; the spread of Johne's disease is modeled with five infection routes. Many different dairy farm situations can be simulated.

Elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel: formal process and application in animal health.

This paper presents a protocol for a formal expert judgment process using a heterogeneous expert panel aimed at the quantification of continuous variables. The emphasis is on the process's requirements related to the nature of expertise within the panel, in particular the heterogeneity of both substantive and normative expertise. The process provides the opportunity for interaction among the experts so that they fully understand and agree upon the problem at hand, including qualitative aspects relevant to the variables of interest, prior to the actual quantification task.