Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?

Background: Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations.

Analysis of intervention effectiveness using early outbreak transmission dynamics to guide future pandemic management and decision-making in Kuwait.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a World Health Organization designated pandemic that can result in severe symptoms and death that disproportionately affects older patients or those with comorbidities. Kuwait reported its first imported cases of COVID-19 on February 24, 2020. Analysis of data from the first three months of community transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak in Kuwait can provide important guidance for decision-making when dealing with future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave management.

Modeling the effect of lockdown timing as a COVID-19 control measure in countries with differing social contacts.

The application, timing, and duration of lockdown strategies during a pandemic remain poorly quantified with regards to expected public health outcomes. Previous projection models have reached conflicting conclusions about the effect of complete lockdowns on COVID-19 outcomes. We developed a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model with eight states including the environment (SEAMHQRD-V), and derived a formula for the basic reproduction number, R, for that model.

Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June-August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging zoonotic coronavirus that has a tendency to cause significant healthcare outbreaks among patients with serious comorbidities. We analyzed hospital data from the MERS-CoV outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June-August 2015 using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) ward transmission model. The SEIR compartmental model considers several areas within the hospital where transmission occurred.

Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.

A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing.

Using expert judgments to improve chronic wasting disease risk management in Canada.

ABSTARCT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative, protein misfolding disease affecting cervids in North America in epidemic proportions. While the existence of CWD has been known for more than 40 years, risk management efforts to date have not been able to curtail the spread of this condition. An expert elicitation exercise was carried out in May 2011 to obtain the views of international experts on both the etiology of CWD and possible CWD risk management strategies.

A stochastic model of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy epidemic in Canada.

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) appeared in the United Kingdom in the mid 1980s, and has been attributed to the use of meat and bone meal (MBM) in cattle feed contaminated with a scrapie-like agent. Import of infectious materials from a country where BSE has occurred is believed to be the major factor underlying the spread of the BSE epidemic to other countries. This study presents a new stochastic model developed to estimate risk of BSE from importation of cattle infected with the BSE agent.

Mathematical Models for Estimating the Risks of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE).

When the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic first emerged in the United Kingdom in the mid 1980s, the etiology of animal prion diseases was largely unknown. Risk management efforts to control the disease were also subject to uncertainties regarding the extent of BSE infections and future course of the epidemic. As understanding of BSE increased, mathematical models were developed to estimate risk of BSE infection and to predict reductions in risk in response to BSE control measures.

Relationship of erythrocyte transfusion with short- and long-term mortality in a population-based surgical cohort.

Background: When comparing transfused versus nontransfused patients, erythrocyte transfusion is consistently associated with increased mortality. Nonetheless, unmeasured confounding may unduly influence this comparison. This unmeasured risk may have less influence on comparisons of patients undergoing surgery at hospitals with differing transfusion rates.

Expert elicitation for the judgment of prion disease risk uncertainties.

There is a high level of uncertainty surrounding the potential for iatrogenic prion transmission through transplantation, medical instrument reuse, blood transfusion, and blood product use due to a lack of evidence-based research on this important risk issue. A group of specialists was enlisted to evaluate some of the knowledge gaps in this area using the "Classical Model," a structured elicitation procedure for weighting and pooling expert judgment. The elicitation exercise was undertaken in March 2009 with 11 transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) experts who were first calibrated using a series of seed questions for which the answers are known; they were then asked to answer a number of target questions that are important for risk assessment purposes, but for which there remains high uncertainty at this time.

Documenting a transfusion: how well is it done?

Background: Current practice in transfusion medicine promotes clear documentation of transfusion-related events including the fact that the patient has been informed of the related risks and benefits.

Study Design And Methods: A retrospective review of 1005 patient charts was carried out to determine documentation.

Results: Most patients were from general surgery (10.

Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in Canada, 1995: analysis of death certificates.

A descriptive analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) deaths in Canada for 1995 was undertaken. Cases (ICD-9 155.0) were identified from the Statistics Canada annual mortality file; age-adjusted death rates by age, sex and province were calculated.

Epidemiological study of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease death certificates in Canada, 1979-2001.

Introduction: A descriptive epidemiological analysis to update trends of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) deaths, from 1979-2001, was undertaken.

Methods: Cases with CJD as underlying cause were extracted. Age-adjusted death rates by age, sex, and province were calculated.

An epidemiologic study of hepatocellular carcinoma in Canada.

Background And Methods: To provide information on poorly described Canadian hepatocellular cancer epidemiology, we analyzed incident cases abstracted from the Canadian Cancer Registration Database (1969-1997) and Canadian annual death data (1969-1998). Age, sex, geographic distribution, and secular trends were described. Projection models were developed for the next decade.

Development of a computer linkage system for a blood recipient notification program in Nova Scotia.

Objectives: To assess the potential uses of computer-assisted record linkage in the surveillance of infectious diseases, using the Nova Scotia blood recipient notification program as the example.

Methods: We developed a computer-assisted, multiple-pass, probabilistic record linkage to link records for blood recipients identified by the Nova Scotia notification program (Nova Scotia Phase I Blood Bank File information) with corresponding Nova Scotia Health Card Registration File records to obtain current mailing addresses to contact potentially living recipients. We used variables available from both files (e.

Hepatitis A, B, and C in Canada. Results from the National Sentinel Health Unit Surveillance System, 1993-1995.

Objectives: To estimate the incidence of and to describe the risk factors that were associated with the acquisition of hepatitis A, B, and C in well-defined Canadian populations from the Sentinel Health Unit Surveillance System (SHUSS).

Methods: We used the 1993 to 1995 data on hepatitis A, B, and C infection in Canada, collected by SHUSS, a national surveillance system established by the Laboratory Centre for Disease Control in Health Canada in 1993, through consultation and collaboration with provincial partners. We calculated the rates of, and described and discussed the risk factors that were associated with, hepatitis A, B, and C infection, based on the SHUSS surveillance data.