Bayesian inference under cluster sampling with probability proportional to size.

Cluster sampling is common in survey practice, and the corresponding inference has been predominantly design based. We develop a Bayesian framework for cluster sampling and account for the design effect in the outcome modeling. We consider a two-stage cluster sampling design where the clusters are first selected with probability proportional to cluster size, and then units are randomly sampled inside selected clusters.

A Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to estimate disease prevalence in hard-to-reach populations: hepatitis C in New York City.

Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in New York City (NYC) are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs). To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources.

The Millennium Villages Project: a retrospective, observational, endline evaluation.

Background: The Millennium Villages Project (MVP) was a 10 year, multisector, rural development project, initiated in 2005, operating across ten sites in ten sub-Saharan African countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In this study, we aimed to estimate the project's impact, target attainment, and on-site spending.

Methods: In this endline evaluation of the MVP, we retrospectively selected comparison villages that best matched the project villages on possible confounding variables.

Social sector expenditure and child mortality in India: a state-level analysis from 1997 to 2009.

Background: India is unlikely to meet the Millennium Development Goal for child mortality. As public policy impacts child mortality, we assessed the association of social sector expenditure with child mortality in India.

Methods And Findings: Mixed-effects regression models were used to assess the relationship of state-level overall social sector expenditure and its major components (health, health-related, education, and other) with mortality by sex among infants and children aged 1-4 years from 1997 to 2009, adjusting for potential confounders.

Determinants of condom uptake among HIV voluntary counselling and testing clients: experiences from a hospital-based study in south India.

Background: HIV voluntary counselling and testing was a key HIV prevention strategy brought to scale by India's National AIDS Control Organization. Condom uptake is an essential metric of intervention impact given the expansion of the epidemic into an increasingly diverse population. With only 20% of first-time counselling and testing clients at the largest HIV treatment hospital in south India reporting previous condom use, the question of intervention impact on condom use deserves investigation.

Algorithms for enhancing public health utility of national causes-of-death data.

Background: Coverage and quality of cause-of-death (CoD) data varies across countries and time. Valid, reliable, and comparable assessments of trends in causes of death from even the best systems are limited by three problems: a) changes in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) over time; b) the use of tabulation lists where substantial detail on causes of death is lost; and c) many deaths assigned to causes that cannot or should not be considered underlying causes of death, often called garbage codes (GCs). The Global Burden of Disease Study and the World Health Organization have developed various methods to enhance comparability of CoD data.

Maternal mortality for 181 countries, 1980-2008: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 5.

Background: Maternal mortality remains a major challenge to health systems worldwide. Reliable information about the rates and trends in maternal mortality is essential for resource mobilisation, and for planning and assessment of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 5 (MDG 5), the target for which is a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) from 1990 to 2015. We assessed levels and trends in maternal mortality for 181 countries.