Significant hot hand effect in the game of cricket.

We investigate the predictability and persistence of individual and team performance (hot-hand effect) by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of predictability and hot-hands across the individual performance and the absence of the same in team performance and game outcome.

Synchronized bursts of productivity and success in individual careers.

Notwithstanding a significant understanding of epidemic processes in biological, social, financial, and geophysical systems, little is known about contagion behavior in individual productivity and success. We introduce an epidemic model to study the contagion of scholarly productivity and YouTube success. Our analysis reveals the existence of synchronized bursts in individual productivity and success, which are likely mediated by sustained flows of information within the networks.

Impact of Governmental interventions on epidemic progression and workplace activity during the COVID-19 outbreak.

In the first quarter of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic brought the world to a state of paralysis. During this period, humanity saw by far the largest organized travel restrictions and unprecedented efforts and global coordination to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Using large scale human mobility and fine grained epidemic incidence data, we develop a framework to understand and quantify the effectiveness of the interventions implemented by various countries to control epidemic growth.

Is Seismicity Operating at a Critical Point?

Seismicity and faulting within the Earth's crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase transitions. Using an augmented epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model that accounts for the spatial variability of the background rates μ(x,y), we present a direct quantitative test of criticality. We calibrate the model to the ANSS catalog of the entire globe, the region around California, and the Geonet catalog for the region around New Zealand using an extended expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm including the determination of μ(x,y).