Simple stochastic model for El Niño with westerly wind bursts.

Atmospheric wind bursts in the tropics play a key role in the dynamics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A simple modeling framework is proposed that summarizes this relationship and captures major features of the observational record while remaining physically consistent and amenable to detailed analysis. Within this simple framework, wind burst activity evolves according to a stochastic two-state Markov switching-diffusion process that depends on the strength of the western Pacific warm pool, and is coupled to simple ocean-atmosphere processes that are otherwise deterministic, stable, and linear.