Scaling-up ecological understanding with remote sensing and causal inference.

Decades of empirical ecological research have focused on understanding ecological dynamics at local scales. Remote sensing products can help to scale-up ecological understanding to support management actions that need to be implemented across large spatial extents. This new avenue for remote sensing applications requires careful consideration of sources of potential bias that can lead to spurious causal relationships.

Temporal variability and predictability predict alpine plant community composition and distribution patterns.

One of the most reliable features of natural systems is that they change through time. Theory predicts that temporally fluctuating conditions shape community composition, species distribution patterns, and life history variation, yet features of temporal variability are rarely incorporated into studies of species-environment associations. In this study, we evaluated how two components of temporal environmental variation-variability and predictability-impact plant community composition and species distribution patterns in the alpine tundra of the Southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado (USA).

Biodiversity in changing environments: An external-driver internal-topology framework to guide intervention.

Accompanying the climate crisis is the more enigmatic biodiversity crisis. Rapid reorganization of biodiversity due to global environmental change has defied prediction and tested the basic tenets of conservation and restoration. Conceptual and practical innovation is needed to support decision making in the face of these unprecedented shifts.

Drivers of bacterial and fungal root endophyte communities: understanding the relative influence of host plant, environment, and space.

Bacterial and fungal root endophytes can impact the fitness of their host plants, but the relative importance of drivers for root endophyte communities is not well known. Host plant species, the composition and density of the surrounding plants, space, and abiotic drivers could significantly affect bacterial and fungal root endophyte communities. We investigated their influence in endophyte communities of alpine plants across a harsh high mountain landscape using high-throughput sequencing.

Climate disequilibrium dominates uncertainty in long-term projections of primary productivity.

Rapid climate change may exceed ecosystems' capacities to respond through processes including phenotypic plasticity, compositional turnover and evolutionary adaption. However, consequences of the resulting climate disequilibria for ecosystem functioning are rarely considered in projections of climate change impacts. Combining statistical models fit to historical climate data and remotely-sensed estimates of herbaceous net primary productivity with an ensemble of climate models, we demonstrate that assumptions concerning the magnitude of climate disequilibrium are a dominant source of uncertainty: models assuming maximum disequilibrium project widespread decreases in productivity in the western US by 2100, while models assuming minimal disequilibrium project productivity increases.

Causes and consequences of differences in soil and seed microbiomes for two alpine plants.

Seed and soil microbiomes strongly affect plant performance, and these effects can scale-up to influence plant community structure. However, seed and soil microbial community composition are variable across landscapes, and different microbial communities can differentially influence multiple plant metrics (biomass, germination rate), and community stabilizing mechanisms. We determined how microbiomes inside seeds and in soils varied among alpine plant species and communities that differed in plant species richness and density.

Ancient grasslands guide ambitious goals in grassland restoration.

Grasslands, which constitute almost 40% of the terrestrial biosphere, provide habitat for a great diversity of animals and plants and contribute to the livelihoods of more than 1 billion people worldwide. Whereas the destruction and degradation of grasslands can occur rapidly, recent work indicates that complete recovery of biodiversity and essential functions occurs slowly or not at all. Grassland restoration-interventions to speed or guide this recovery-has received less attention than restoration of forested ecosystems, often due to the prevailing assumption that grasslands are recently formed habitats that can reassemble quickly.

Global change re-structures alpine plant communities through interacting abiotic and biotic effects.

Global change is altering patterns of community assembly, with net outcomes dependent on species' responses to the abiotic environment, both directly and mediated through biotic interactions. Here, we assess alpine plant community responses in a 15-year factorial nitrogen addition, warming and snow manipulation experiment. We used a dynamic competition model to estimate the density-dependent and -independent processes underlying changes in species-group abundances over time.

The long and the short of it: Mechanisms of synchronous and compensatory dynamics across temporal scales.

Synchronous dynamics (fluctuations that occur in unison) are universal phenomena with widespread implications for ecological stability. Synchronous dynamics can amplify the destabilizing effect of environmental variability on ecosystem functions such as productivity, whereas the inverse, compensatory dynamics, can stabilize function. Here we combine simulation and empirical analyses to elucidate mechanisms that underlie patterns of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics.

Seed bank bias: Differential tracking of functional traits in the seed bank and vegetation across a gradient.

A goal in trait-based ecology is to understand and predict plant community responses to environmental change; however, diversity stored within seed banks that may expand or limit these responses is typically overlooked. If seed banks store attributes that are more advantageous or vulnerable under future conditions, they could impact community adaptability to change and disturbance. We explored compositional differences between seed banks and vegetation (i.

Do trade-offs govern plant species' responses to different global change treatments?

Plants are subject to trade-offs among growth strategies such that adaptations for optimal growth in one condition can preclude optimal growth in another. Thus, we predicted that a plant species that responds positively to one global change treatment would be less likely than average to respond positively to another treatment, particularly for pairs of treatments that favor distinct traits. We examined plant species' abundances in 39 global change experiments manipulating two or more of the following: CO , nitrogen, phosphorus, water, temperature, or disturbance.

Nitrogen addition, not heterogeneity, alters the relationship between invasion and native decline in California grasslands.

The presence of invasive species reduces the growth and performance of native species; however, the linear or non-linear relationships between invasive abundance and native population declines are less often studied. We examine how the amount and spatial distribution of experimental N deposition influences the relationship between non-native, invasive annual grass abundance (Bromus hordeaceus and Bromus diandrus) and a dominant, native perennial grass species (Stipa pulchra) in California. We hypothesized that native populations would decline as invasion increased, and that high nitrogen availability would cause native species to decline at lower invasion levels.

Do plant-soil interactions influence how the microbial community responds to environmental change?

Global change alters ecosystems and their functioning, and biotic interactions can either buffer or amplify such changes. We utilized a long-term nitrogen (N) addition and species removal experiment in the Front Range of Colorado, USA to determine whether a codominant forb and a codominant grass, with different effects on nutrient cycling and plant community structure, would buffer or amplify the effects of simulated N deposition on soil bacterial and fungal communities. While the plant community was strongly shaped by both the presence of dominant species and N addition, we did not find a mediating effect of the plant community on soil microbial response to N.

Drivers of seedling establishment success in dryland restoration efforts.

Restoration of degraded drylands is urgently needed to mitigate climate change, reverse desertification and secure livelihoods for the two billion people who live in these areas. Bold global targets have been set for dryland restoration to restore millions of hectares of degraded land. These targets have been questioned as overly ambitious, but without a global evaluation of successes and failures it is impossible to gauge feasibility.

The spatial synchrony of species richness and its relationship to ecosystem stability.

Synchrony is broadly important to population and community dynamics due to its ubiquity and implications for extinction dynamics, system stability, and species diversity. Investigations of synchrony in community ecology have tended to focus on covariance in the abundances of multiple species in a single location. Yet, the importance of regional environmental variation and spatial processes in community dynamics suggests that community properties, such as species richness, could fluctuate synchronously across patches in a metacommunity, in an analog of population spatial synchrony.

Determinants of community compositional change are equally affected by global change.

Global change is impacting plant community composition, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are unclear. Using a dataset of 58 global change experiments, we tested the five fundamental mechanisms of community change: changes in evenness and richness, reordering, species gains and losses. We found 71% of communities were impacted by global change treatments, and 88% of communities that were exposed to two or more global change drivers were impacted.

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants.

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment.

Biotic vs abiotic controls on temporal sensitivity of primary production to precipitation across North American drylands.

Dryland net primary productivity (NPP) is sensitive to temporal variation in precipitation (PPT), but the magnitude of this 'temporal sensitivity' varies spatially. Hypotheses for spatial variation in temporal sensitivity have often emphasized abiotic factors, such as moisture limitation, while overlooking biotic factors, such as vegetation structure. We tested these hypotheses using spatiotemporal models fit to remote-sensing data sets to assess how vegetation structure and climate influence temporal sensitivity across five dryland ecoregions of the western USA.

Temporal variability in production is not consistently affected by global change drivers across herbaceous-dominated ecosystems.

Understanding how global change drivers (GCDs) affect aboveground net primary production (ANPP) through time is essential to predicting the reliability and maintenance of ecosystem function and services in the future. While GCDs, such as drought, warming and elevated nutrients, are known to affect mean ANPP, less is known about how they affect inter-annual variability in ANPP. We examined 27 global change experiments located in 11 different herbaceous ecosystems that varied in both abiotic and biotic conditions, to investigate changes in the mean and temporal variability of ANPP (measured as the coefficient of variation) in response to different GCD manipulations, including resource additions, warming, and irrigation.

Growing-season length and soil microbes influence the performance of a generalist bunchgrass beyond its current range.

As organisms shift their geographic distributions in response to climate change, biotic interactions have emerged as an important factor driving the rate and success of range expansions. Plant-microbe interactions are an understudied but potentially important factor governing plant range shifts. We studied the distribution and function of microbes present in high-elevation unvegetated soils, areas that plants are colonizing as climate warms, snow melts earlier, and the summer growing season lengthens.

Global plant trait relationships extend to the climatic extremes of the tundra biome.

The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific relationships are confounded by trait variation within species. We test whether trait relationships extend to the cold extremes of life on Earth using the largest database of tundra plant traits yet compiled.

Soil Microbial Networks Shift Across a High-Elevation Successional Gradient.

While it is well established that microbial composition and diversity shift along environmental gradients, how interactions among microbes change is poorly understood. Here, we tested how community structure and species interactions among diverse groups of soil microbes (bacteria, fungi, non-fungal eukaryotes) change across a fundamental ecological gradient, succession. Our study system is a high-elevation alpine ecosystem that exhibits variability in successional stage due to topography and harsh environmental conditions.

Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed.

Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated.