Towards a continent-wide ecological site condition database using calibrated expert evaluations.

A cost-effective way of undertaking comprehensive, continental-scale, assessments of ecological condition is needed to support large-scale conservation planning, monitoring, reporting, and decision-making. Currently, cross-jurisdictional inconsistency in assessment methods limits the capacity to scale-up monitoring. Here we present a novel way to build a coherent continent-wide site-level ecological condition dataset, using cross-calibration methods to integrate assessments from many observers.

An endangered flightless grasshopper with strong genetic structure maintains population genetic variation despite extensive habitat loss.

Conservation research is dominated by vertebrate examples but the shorter generation times and high local population sizes of invertebrates may lead to very different management strategies, particularly for species with low movement rates. Here we investigate the genetic structure of an endangered flightless grasshopper, , which was used in classical evolutionary studies in the 1960s. It had a wide distribution across New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria in pre-European times but has now become threatened because of land clearing for agriculture and other activities.

Evolutionary history and genetic connectivity across highly fragmented populations of an endangered daisy.

Conservation management can be aided by knowledge of genetic diversity and evolutionary history, so that ecological and evolutionary processes can be preserved. The Button Wrinklewort daisy (Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides) was a common component of grassy ecosystems in south-eastern Australia. It is now endangered due to extensive habitat loss and the impacts of livestock grazing, and is currently restricted to a few small populations in two regions >500 km apart, one in Victoria, the other in the Australian Capital Territory and nearby New South Wales (ACT/NSW).

Genetic data and climate niche suitability models highlight the vulnerability of a functionally important plant species from south-eastern Australia.

Habitat fragmentation imperils the persistence of many functionally important species, with climate change a new threat to local persistence due to climate niche mismatching. Predicting the evolutionary trajectory of species essential to ecosystem function under future climates is challenging but necessary for prioritizing conservation investments. We use a combination of population genetics and niche suitability models to assess the trajectory of a functionally important, but highly fragmented, plant species from south-eastern Australia (, Proteaceae).

Expert predictions of changes in vegetation condition reveal perceived risks in biodiversity offsetting.

Biodiversity offsetting typically involves the trade of certain losses of habitat with uncertain future conservation benefits. Predicting the latter requires estimates of two outcomes; the biodiversity losses without conservation management (averted loss), and the biodiversity gains with conservation management (management gain). However, because empirical data to inform these estimates are limited, they are normally guided by expert opinion, often derived via unstructured methods without consideration of uncertainty.

A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data.

Quantifying ecosystem quality by modeling multi-attribute expert opinion.

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is inherently subjective, requiring decisions about which variables to notice or measure, and how these variables are integrated into a coherent evaluation. Despite the central role of human judgment, few evaluation methods address the subjectivity that is inherent in their design. There are, however, advantages to directly using opinion to create an expert system where the metric is constructed around opinion data.