The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia.

Recent years have seen unprecedented shifts in global natural gas trade, precipitated in large part by Russia's war on Ukraine. How this regional conflict impacts the future of natural gas markets is subject to three interconnected factors: (i) Russia's strategy to regain markets for its gas exports; (ii) Europe's push towards increased liquified natural gas (LNG) and the pace of its low carbon transition; and (iii) China's gas demand and how it balances its climate and energy security objectives. A scenario modelling approach is applied to explore the potential implications of this geopolitical crisis.

No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need.

A social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects has strong potential to contribute to achieving global climate goals.

Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making.

This article explores how the modeling of energy systems may lead to an undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We retrospectively exemplify the problem with the case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modeling in the 1980s. We discuss different methodologies for quality assessment that may help mitigate this issue, which include Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP), diagnostic diagrams, and sensitivity auditing (SAUD).

Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions.

The mitigation scenarios database of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report is an important resource for informing policymaking on energy transitions. However, there is a large variety of models, scenario designs, and resulting outputs. Here we analyse the scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or below regarding the speed, trajectory, and feasibility of different fossil fuel reduction pathways.

Fossil extraction bans and carbon taxes: Assessing their interplay through multiple models.

Given concerns about the ambition and effectiveness of current climate policies, a case has been made for the combination of demand side policies such as carbon pricing with supply side bans on fossil fuel extraction. However, little is known about their interplay in the context of climate stabilization strategies. Here, we present a multi-model assessment quantifying the effectiveness of supply side policies and their interactions with demand-side ones.

Selected 'Starter kit' energy system modelling data for selected countries in Africa, East Asia, and South America (#CCG, 2021).

Energy system modeling can be used to develop internally-consistent quantified scenarios. These provide key insights needed to mobilise finance, understand market development, infrastructure deployment and the associated role of institutions, and generally support improved policymaking. However, access to data is often a barrier to starting energy system modeling, especially in developing countries, thereby causing delays to decision making.

Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world.

Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial times. However, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in their use must be realized to keep the temperature increase below 1.

An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon.

The rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical to achieving a well-below 2 °C world. An emerging body of research explores the implications of this phase-out for fossil fuel producing countries, including the perceived tension between least-cost and most-equitable pathways. Here we present modelling, which re-distributes remaining fossil fuel production towards developing countries.

The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate.

Unlabelled: The Countdown is an international, multidisciplinary collaboration, dedicated to monitoring the evolving health profile of climate change, and providing an independent assessment of the delivery of commitments made by governments worldwide under the Paris Agreement. The 2019 report presents an annual update of 41 indicators across five key domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The report represents the findings and consensus of 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies from every continent.

The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come.

Unlabelled: The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change was established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the health dimensions of the impacts of, and the response to, climate change. The Countdown tracks 41 indicators across five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; finance and economics; and public and political engagement. This report is the product of a collaboration of 27 leading academic institutions, the UN, and intergovernmental agencies from every continent.

Attenuation Coefficients of the Individual Components of the International Electrotechnical Commission Agar Tissue-Mimicking Material.

Tissue-mimicking materials (TMMs) are widely used in quality assurance (QA) phantoms to assess the performance of ultrasound scanners. The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) defines the acoustic parameters of up to 10MHz. To manufacture a TMM that closely mimics the acoustical properties of small animal soft tissue at high frequencies, the acoustic properties of each of the individual component ingredients used in the IEC agar-TMM recipe need to be quantified.

The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act: a modelling study for Great Britain.

Background: Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions.

Methods: In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes.