Expanded criteria donor grafts for deceased donor liver transplantation under the MELD system: a decision analysis.

Expanded criteria donor (ECD) liver grafts have a higher likelihood of primary graft failure (PGF) compared with standard criteria donor (SCD) grafts. Given a choice between an available ECD graft versus waiting for an SCD graft that may not always become available, what should liver transplant candidates do? The study's aim was to estimate 1-year survival comparing immediate ECD liver grafting with waiting for an SCD organ. Using UNOS data, published literature estimates, and expert opinion, we constructed a Markov decision analytic model to estimate survival while waiting for an SCD transplant and survival with immediate ECD transplant.

Predicting the probability of progression-free survival in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma.

Allocation of cadaveric livers to patients based on such objective medical urgency data as the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score may not benefit patients with small hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs). To ensure that these patients have a fair opportunity of receiving a cadaveric organ, the risk for death caused by HCC and tumor progression beyond 5 cm should be considered. Using a Markov model, two hypothetical cohorts of patients with small hepatomas were assumed to have either (1) Gompertzian tumor growth, in which initial exponential growth decreases as tumor size increases; or (2) rapid exponential growth.