Uncertainty analysis of penicillin V production using Monte Carlo simulation.

Uncertainty and variability affect economic and environmental performance in the production of biotechnology and pharmaceutical products. However, commercial process simulation software typically provides analysis that assumes deterministic rather than stochastic process parameters and thus is not capable of dealing with the complexities created by variance that arise in the decision-making process. Using the production of penicillin V as a case study, this article shows how uncertainty can be quantified and evaluated.