Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections.

Background: Malaria epidemics are increasing in East Africa since the 1980s, coincident with rising temperature and widening climate variability. A projected 1-3.5 °C rise in average global temperatures by 2100 could exacerbate the epidemics by modifying disease transmission thresholds.