Origin and Radiative Forcing of Black Carbon Aerosol: Production and Consumption Perspectives.

Air pollution, a threat to air quality and human health, has attracted ever-increasing attention in recent years. In addition to having local influence, air pollutants can also travel the globe via atmospheric circulation and international trade. Black carbon (BC), emitted from incomplete combustion, is a unique but representative particulate pollutant.

Elevating crop disease resistance with cloned genes.

Essentially all plant species exhibit heritable genetic variation for resistance to a variety of plant diseases caused by fungi, bacteria, oomycetes or viruses. Disease losses in crop monocultures are already significant, and would be greater but for applications of disease-controlling agrichemicals. For sustainable intensification of crop production, we argue that disease control should as far as possible be achieved using genetics rather than using costly recurrent chemical sprays.

Predictive uncertainty in environmental modelling.

Artificial neural networks have proved an attractive approach to non-linear regression problems arising in environmental modelling, such as statistical downscaling, short-term forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentrations and rainfall run-off modelling. However, environmental datasets are frequently very noisy and characterized by a noise process that may be heteroscedastic (having input dependent variance) and/or non-Gaussian. The aim of this paper is to review existing methodologies for estimating predictive uncertainty in such situations and, more importantly, to illustrate how a model of the predictive distribution may be exploited in assessing the possible impacts of climate change and to improve current decision making processes.