Collaborative forecasting of influenza-like illness in Italy: The Influcast experience.

Collaborative hubs that integrate multiple teams to generate ensemble projections and forecasts for shared targets are now regarded as state-of-the-art in epidemic predictive modeling. In this paper, we introduce Influcast, Italy's first epidemic forecasting hub for influenza-like illness. During the 2023/2024 winter season, Influcast provided 20 rounds of forecasts, involving five teams and eight models to predict influenza-like illness incidence up to four weeks in advance at the national and regional administrative level.

Combining environmental and socioeconomic data to understand determinants of conflicts in Colombia.

Conflicts cause immense human suffering, violate human rights, and affect people's stability. Colombia is affected for decades by a high level of armed conflicts and violence. The political and socio-economic situation, drug trafficking in the Colombian economy, and natural disasters events affect the country and foster general violence.