Evaluating the effectiveness of badger vaccination combined with cattle test-and-removal in managing Bovine Tuberculosis: Insights from a two-host and multi-route transmission model.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has a complex infection ecology and is difficult to control in many countries, including Ireland. For many years, the Irish national bTB eradication programme relied on cattle-based control measures, including test-and-removal with related movement restrictions. In the early 2000s, badger culling was added as a part of the control measure in the national programme.

Quantifying health risks from ESBL-producing Escherichia coli in Dutch broiler production chains and potential interventions using compartmental models.

Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) in animals are considered a human health threat, because this type of bacteria can serve as a reservoir of antibiotic resistant genes and act as a continuous threat of the emergence of new resistant bacteria, in addition to the direct effect of making infection untreatable. Although the prevalence of ESBL producing bacteria in broilers was drastically reduced in the Netherlands, chicken meat still has the highest prevalence among meat products.

Understanding the interface between European wild boar (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) in Sweden through a questionnaire study.

Background: In recent years, the wildlife/livestock interface has attracted increased attention due to disease transmission between wild and domestic animal populations. The ongoing spread of African swine fever (ASF) in European wild boar (Sus scrofa) emphasize the need for further understanding of the wildlife/livestock interface to prevent disease spill-over between the wild and domestic populations. Although wild boar may also act as a potential source for other infectious disease agents, ASF is currently the most severe threat from wild boar to domestic pigs.

Data workflows and visualization in support of surveillance practice.

The Swedish National Veterinary Institute (SVA) is working on implementing reusable and adaptable workflows for epidemiological analysis and dynamic report generation to improve disease surveillance. Important components of this work include: data access, development environment, computational resources and cloud-based management. The development environment relies on Git for code collaboration and version control and the R language for statistical computing and data visualization.

Complex network analysis to understand trading partnership in French swine production.

The circulation of livestock pathogens in the pig industry is strongly related to animal movements. Epidemiological models developed to understand the circulation of pathogens within the industry should include the probability of transmission via between-farm contacts. The pig industry presents a structured network in time and space, whose composition changes over time.

Modelling spread and surveillance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in the Swedish cattle trade network.

To monitor a state of disease freedom and to ensure a timely detection of new introductions of disease, surveillance programmes need be evaluated prior to implementation. We present a strategy to evaluate surveillance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) using simulated testing of bulk milk in an infectious disease spread model.

Bayesian epidemiological modeling over high-resolution network data.

Mathematical epidemiological models have a broad use, including both qualitative and quantitative applications. With the increasing availability of data, large-scale quantitative disease spread models can nowadays be formulated. Such models have a great potential, e.

A between-herd data-driven stochastic model to explore the spatio-temporal spread of hepatitis E virus in the French pig production network.

Hepatitis E virus is a zoonotic pathogen for which pigs are recognized as the major reservoir in industrialised countries. A multiscale model was developed to assess the HEV transmission and persistence pattern in the pig production sector through an integrative approach taking into account within-farm dynamics and animal movements based on actual data. Within-farm dynamics included both demographic and epidemiological processes.

Spatio-temporal modelling of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 in cattle in Sweden: exploring options for control.

A spatial data-driven stochastic model was developed to explore the spread of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157) by livestock movements and local transmission among neighbouring holdings in the complete Swedish cattle population. Livestock data were incorporated to model the time-varying contact network between holdings and population demographics. Furthermore, meteorological data with the average temperature at the geographical location of each holding was used to incorporate season.

Mechanistic modelling of interventions against spread of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) within a Danish farrow-to-finish pig herd.

Knowledge on successful interventions against livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) within pig herds is sparse. In situations like this, a mechanistic simulation model can be a valuable tool for assessing the effect of potential intervention strategies, and prioritising which should be tested in the field. We have simulated on-farm interventions in a farrow-to-finish pig herd, with a previously published LA-MRSA spread model, within four different areas: 1) Reduced antimicrobial consumption, 2) Reduced number of pigs within each section, 3) Reduced mixing of pigs, and 4) Improved internal biosecurity.

Evaluation of Strategies to Control a Potential Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Sweden.

To minimize the potential consequences of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Europe, European Union (EU) member states are required to present a contingency plan. This study used a simulation model to study potential outbreak scenarios in Sweden and evaluate the best control strategies. The model was informed by the Swedish livestock structure using herd information from cattle, pig, and small ruminant holdings in the country.

Data-driven network modelling of disease transmission using complete population movement data: spread of VTEC O157 in Swedish cattle.

European Union legislation requires member states to keep national databases of all bovine animals. This allows for disease spread models that includes the time-varying contact network and population demographic. However, performing data-driven simulations with a high degree of detail are computationally challenging.

Longitudinal observational study over 38 months of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157:H7 status in 126 cattle herds.

Verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157:H7 (VTEC O157:H7) is an important zoonotic pathogen capable of causing infections in humans, sometimes with severe symptoms such as hemorrhagic colitis and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). It has been reported that a subgroup of VTEC O157:H7, referred to as clade 8, is overrepresented among HUS cases. Cattle are considered to be the main reservoir of VTEC O157:H7 and infected animals shed the bacteria in feces without showing clinical signs of disease.

Evaluation of farm-level parameters derived from animal movements for use in risk-based surveillance programmes of cattle in Switzerland.

Background: This study focused on the descriptive analysis of cattle movements and farm-level parameters derived from cattle movements, which are considered to be generically suitable for risk-based surveillance systems in Switzerland for diseases where animal movements constitute an important risk pathway.

Methods: A framework was developed to select farms for surveillance based on a risk score summarizing 5 parameters. The proposed framework was validated using data from the bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) surveillance programme in 2013.

A novel method to identify herds with an increased probability of disease introduction due to animal trade.

In the design of surveillance, there is often a desire to target high risk herds. Such risk-based approaches result in better allocation of resources and improve the performance of surveillance activities. For many contagious animal diseases, movement of live animals is a main route of transmission, and because of this, herds that purchase many live animals or have a large contact network due to trade can be seen as a high risk stratum of the population.

Relative contributions of neighbourhood and animal movements to Coxiella burnetii infection in dairy cattle herds.

Q fever in dairy cattle herds occurs mainly after inhalation of contaminated aerosols generated from excreta by shedder animals. Propagation of Coxiella burnetii, the cause of the disease between ruminant herds could result from transmission between neighbouring herds and/or the introduction of infected shedder animals in healthy herds. The objective of this study were (i) to describe the spatial distribution C.

EpiContactTrace: an R-package for contact tracing during livestock disease outbreaks and for risk-based surveillance.

Background: During outbreak of livestock diseases, contact tracing can be an important part of disease control. Animal movements can also be of relevance for risk-based surveillance and sampling, i.e.

Environmental sampling for evaluating verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157: H7 status in dairy cattle herds.

Verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157:H7 is a zoonotic bacterial pathogen capable of causing severe disease in human beings. Cattle are considered to be the main reservoir of the bacterium. The objective of the current study was to compare environmental sampling (consisting of dust, overshoe, and pooled pat samples) with pooled, individual fecal sampling for determining the cattle herd status under field conditions in naturally infected dairy herds.

Infection prevention and control interventions in the first outbreak of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infections in an equine hospital in Sweden.

Background: The first outbreak of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection in horses in Sweden occurred in 2008 at the University Animal Hospital and highlighted the need for improved infection prevention and control. The present study describes interventions and infection prevention control in an equine hospital setting July 2008 - April 2010.

Method: This descriptive study of interventions is based on examination of policy documents, medical records, notes from meetings and cost estimates.

Spatio-temporal evaluation of cattle trade in Sweden: description of a grid network visualization technique.

Understanding the intensity and spatial patterns of animal transfers is of prime importance as geographical moves play an important part in the spread and potential control of contagious animal diseases of veterinary importance. For the purpose of visualizing all registered between-herd animal movements in Sweden between 1 July 2005 and 31 December 2008 by map animation, a grid network technique based on the Bresenham line algorithm was developed. Potential spatio-temporal clustering of animals registered as sold or purchased based on location and month of trade was also detected and tested using a spatial scan statistic.