Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions.

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data.

Evolving tides aggravate nuisance flooding along the U.S. coastline.

Nuisance flooding (NF) is defined as minor, nondestructive flooding that causes substantial, accumulating socioeconomic impacts to coastal communities. While sea-level rise is the main driver for the observed increase in NF events in the United States, we show here that secular changes in tides also contribute. An analysis of 40 tidal gauge records from U.

Changing Tides: The Role of Natural and Anthropogenic Factors.

Tides are changing worldwide at rates not explained by astronomical forcing. Rather, the observed evolution of tides and other long waves, such as storm surges, is influenced by shelf processes and changes to the roughness, depth, width, and length of embayments, estuaries, and tidal rivers. In this review, we focus on processes in estuaries and tidal rivers, because that is where the largest changes to tidal properties are occurring.

Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels.

Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric.