Accurate modeling of replication rates in genome-wide association studies by accounting for Winner's Curse and study-specific heterogeneity.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of genetic variants associated with complex human traits, but only a fraction of variants identified in discovery studies achieve significance in replication studies. Replication in genome-wide association studies has been well-studied in the context of Winner's Curse, which is the inflation of effect size estimates for significant variants due to statistical chance. However, Winner's Curse is often not sufficient to explain lack of replication.