The vulnerability of sharks, skates, and rays to ocean deoxygenation: Physiological mechanisms, behavioral responses, and ecological impacts.

Levels of dissolved oxygen in open ocean and coastal waters are decreasing (ocean deoxygenation), with poorly understood effects on marine megafauna. All of the more than 1000 species of elasmobranchs (sharks, skates, and rays) are obligate water breathers, with a variety of life-history strategies and oxygen requirements. This review demonstrates that although many elasmobranchs typically avoid hypoxic water, they also appear capable of withstanding mild to moderate hypoxia with changes in activity, ventilatory responses, alterations to circulatory and hematological parameters, and morphological alterations to gill structures.

Direct measurement of cruising and burst swimming speeds of the shortfin mako shark (Isurus oxyrinchus) with estimates of field metabolic rate.

The shortfin mako shark is a large-bodied pursuit predator thought to be capable of the highest swimming speeds of any elasmobranch and potentially one of the highest energetic demands of any marine fish. Nonetheless, few direct speed measurements have been reported for this species. Here, animal-borne bio-loggers attached to two mako sharks were used to provide direct measurements of swimming speeds, kinematics and thermal physiology.

The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Introduction: A key feature of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with different transmission characteristics. However, when a novel variant arrives in a host population, it will not necessarily lead to many cases. Instead, it may fade out, due to stochastic effects and the level of immunity in the population.

A practical guide to mathematical methods for estimating infectious disease outbreak risks.

Mathematical models are increasingly used throughout infectious disease outbreaks to guide control measures. In this review article, we focus on the initial stages of an outbreak, when a pathogen has just been observed in a new location (e.g.

Exploring the role of the potential surface in the behaviour of early warning signals.

The theory of critical slowing down states that a system displays increasing relaxation times as it approaches a critical transition. These changes can be seen in statistics generated from timeseries data, which can be used as early warning signals of a transition. Such early warning signals would be of value for emerging infectious diseases or to understand when an endemic disease is close to elimination.

Circles in the sea: annual courtship "torus" behaviour of basking sharks Cetorhinus maximus identified in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean.

Groups of basking sharks engaged in circling behaviour are rarely observed, and their function remains enigmatic in the absence of detailed observations. Here, underwater and aerial video recordings of multiple circling groups of basking sharks during late summer (August and September 2016-2021) in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean showed groups numbering between 6 and 23 non-feeding individuals of both sexes. Sharks swam slowly in a rotating "torus" (diameter range: 17-39 m), with individuals layered vertically from the surface to a maximum depth of 16 m.

Diving into the vertical dimension of elasmobranch movement ecology.

Knowledge of the three-dimensional movement patterns of elasmobranchs is vital to understand their ecological roles and exposure to anthropogenic pressures. To date, comparative studies among species at global scales have mostly focused on horizontal movements. Our study addresses the knowledge gap of vertical movements by compiling the first global synthesis of vertical habitat use by elasmobranchs from data obtained by deployment of 989 biotelemetry tags on 38 elasmobranch species.

Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools.

A range of measures have been implemented to control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, including the self-isolation of close contacts and twice weekly mass testing of secondary school pupils using lateral flow device tests (LFTs). Despite reducing transmission, isolating close contacts can lead to high levels of absences, negatively impacting pupils. To quantify pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of implemented control measures, we fit a stochastic individual-based model of secondary school infection to both swab testing data and secondary school absences data from England, and then simulate outbreaks from 31st August 2020 until 23rd May 2021.

Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions: a review.

Early warning signals (EWSs) are a group of statistical time-series signals which could be used to anticipate a critical transition before it is reached. EWSs are model-independent methods that have grown in popularity to support evidence of disease emergence and disease elimination. Theoretical work has demonstrated their capability of detecting disease transitions in simple epidemic models, where elimination is reached through vaccination, to more complex vector transmission, age-structured and metapopulation models.

An analysis of school absences in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: The introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the introduction of several control policies to reduce disease spread. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year groups in June. Finally, all school children returned to the classroom in September.

The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England.

By mid-May 2020, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1 June 2020. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is unclear. Here, we present work from mid-May 2020 that focused on the imminent opening of schools and consider what these results imply for future policy.

Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment.

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence.

Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: Application to epidemiological incidence data.

Early warning signals (EWS) identify systems approaching a critical transition, where the system undergoes a sudden change in state. For example, monitoring changes in variance or autocorrelation offers a computationally inexpensive method which can be used in real-time to assess when an infectious disease transitions to elimination. EWS have a promising potential to not only be used to monitor infectious diseases, but also to inform control policies to aid disease elimination.

Global spatial risk assessment of sharks under the footprint of fisheries.

Effective ocean management and the conservation of highly migratory species depend on resolving the overlap between animal movements and distributions, and fishing effort. However, this information is lacking at a global scale. Here we show, using a big-data approach that combines satellite-tracked movements of pelagic sharks and global fishing fleets, that 24% of the mean monthly space used by sharks falls under the footprint of pelagic longline fisheries.

The problem of detrending when analysing potential indicators of disease elimination.

As we strive towards the elimination of many burdensome diseases, the question of when intervention efforts may cease is increasingly important. It can be very difficult to know when prevalences are low enough that the disease will die out without further intervention, particularly for diseases that lack accurate tests. The consequences of stopping an intervention prematurely can put back elimination efforts by decades.

Hierarchical random walks in trace fossils and the origin of optimal search behavior.

Efficient searching is crucial for timely location of food and other resources. Recent studies show that diverse living animals use a theoretically optimal scale-free random search for sparse resources known as a Lévy walk, but little is known of the origins and evolution of foraging behavior and the search strategies of extinct organisms. Here, using simulations of self-avoiding trace fossil trails, we show that randomly introduced strophotaxis (U-turns)--initiated by obstructions such as self-trail avoidance or innate cueing--leads to random looping patterns with clustering across increasing scales that is consistent with the presence of Lévy walks.

Scaling laws of ambush predator 'waiting' behaviour are tuned to a common ecology.

The decisions animals make about how long to wait between activities can determine the success of diverse behaviours such as foraging, group formation or risk avoidance. Remarkably, for diverse animal species, including humans, spontaneous patterns of waiting times show random 'burstiness' that appears scale-invariant across a broad set of scales. However, a general theory linking this phenomenon across the animal kingdom currently lacks an ecological basis.

Identifying reproductive events using archival tags: egg-laying behaviour of the small spotted catshark Scyliorhinus canicula.

The use of archival depth telemetry as a means of remotely assessing the reproductive rates of free-ranging fishes is explored. This is achieved by electronically tracking the vertical movements of individual female small spotted catsharks Scyliorhinus canicula in the natural environment, whilst simultaneously evaluating the temporal and vertical distributions of egg-laying in this species. Distinctive patterns of short-term (0·3-3·7 h), shallow-water activity are documented in the time-depth profiles of female S.

Foraging success of biological Lévy flights recorded in situ.

It is an open question how animals find food in dynamic natural environments where they possess little or no knowledge of where resources are located. Foraging theory predicts that in environments with sparsely distributed target resources, where forager knowledge about resources' locations is incomplete, Lévy flight movements optimize the success of random searches. However, the putative success of Lévy foraging has been demonstrated only in model simulations.

Environmental context explains Lévy and Brownian movement patterns of marine predators.

An optimal search theory, the so-called Lévy-flight foraging hypothesis, predicts that predators should adopt search strategies known as Lévy flights where prey is sparse and distributed unpredictably, but that Brownian movement is sufficiently efficient for locating abundant prey. Empirical studies have generated controversy because the accuracy of statistical methods that have been used to identify Lévy behaviour has recently been questioned. Consequently, whether foragers exhibit Lévy flights in the wild remains unclear.

Atrial fibrillation in a primary care population: how close to NICE guidelines are we?

The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation were published in June 2006. It was anticipated that they would potentially lead to increased demand for echocardiography (ECHO), increased access to secondary care services (for example for cardioversion), and require additional resources for monitoring anticoagulation. A primary care survey was therefore initiated in South Devon, in advance of publication of the guidelines as a snapshot of existing practice, to determine any additional resources and education required to meet the new standards.

Scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.

Many free-ranging predators have to make foraging decisions with little, if any, knowledge of present resource distribution and availability. The optimal search strategy they should use to maximize encounter rates with prey in heterogeneous natural environments remains a largely unresolved issue in ecology. Lévy walks are specialized random walks giving rise to fractal movement trajectories that may represent an optimal solution for searching complex landscapes.