Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models.

Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) is losing mass at a high rate. Given the short-term nature of the observational record, it is difficult to assess the historical importance of this mass-loss trend. Unlike records of greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperature, in which observations have been merged with palaeoclimate datasets, there are no comparably long records for rates of GIS mass change.

Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea-Level Change and the Implications for the Future.

Global sea level provides an important indicator of the state of the warming climate, but changes in regional sea level are most relevant for coastal communities around the world. With improvements to the sea-level observing system, the knowledge of regional sea-level change has advanced dramatically in recent years. Satellite measurements coupled with in situ observations have allowed for comprehensive study and improved understanding of the diverse set of drivers that lead to variations in sea level in space and time.

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison.

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g., those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties.

Inter-relationship between subtropical Pacific sea surface temperature, Arctic sea ice concentration, and North Atlantic Oscillation in recent summers.

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentrations in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in summer are investigated over the period 1980-2016. It is shown that the Arctic response to the remote impact of the Pacific SST is more dominant in recent summers, leading to a frequent occurrence of the negative phase of the NAO following the STWCPSST increase. Lag-correlations of STWCPSST positive (negative) anomalies in spring with the negative (positive) NAO and SICBS loss (recovery) in summer have increased over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.

Intercomparison of Surface Temperatures from AIRS, MERRA, and MERRA-2, with NOAA and GC-Net Weather Stations at Summit, Greenland.

The surface skin and air temperatures reported by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AIRS/AMSU-A), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and MERRA-2 at Summit, Greenland are compared with near surface air temperatures measured at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) weather stations. The AIRS/AMSU-A Surface Skin Temperature (TS) is best correlated with the NOAA 2 m air temperature (T2M) but tends to be colder than the station measurements. The difference may be the result of the frequent near surface temperature inversions in the region.

A Multilayer Surface Temperature, Surface Albedo and Water Vapor Product of Greenland from MODIS.

A multilayer, daily ice-surface temperature (IST)-albedo-water vapor product of Greenland, extending from March 2000 through December 2016, has been developed using standard MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data products from the Terra satellite. To meet the needs of the ice sheet modeling community, this new Earth Science Data Record (ESDR) is provided in a polar stereographic projection in NetCDF format, and includes the existing standard MODIS Collection-6.1 IST and derived melt maps, and Collection 6 snow albedo and water vapor maps, along with ancillary data, and is provided at a spatial resolution of ~0.

Rising Oceans Guaranteed: Arctic Land Ice Loss and Sea Level Rise.

Purpose Of Review: This paper reviews sea level contributions from land ice across the Arctic, including Greenland. We summarize ice loss measurement methods, ice loss mechanisms, and recent observations and projections, and highlight research advances over the last 3-5 years and remaining scientific challenges.

Recent Findings: Mass loss across the Arctic began to accelerate during the late twentieth century, with projections of continued loss across all future greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

A synthesis of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The basal thermal state of an ice sheet (frozen or thawed) is an important control upon its evolution, dynamics and response to external forcings. However, this state can only be observed directly within sparse boreholes or inferred conclusively from the presence of subglacial lakes. Here we synthesize spatially extensive inferences of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet to better constrain this state.

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet.

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change.

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6.

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6.