Balancing equity and human leukocyte antigen matching in deceased-donor kidney allocation with eplet mismatch.

Human leukocyte antigen-level matching in US kidney allocation has been deemphasized due to its role in elevating racial disparities. Molecular matching based on eplets might improve risk stratification compared to antigen matching, but the magnitude of racial disparities in molecular matching is not known. To assign eplets unambiguously, we utilized a cohort of 5193 individuals with high-resolution allele-level human leukocyte antigen genotypes from the National Kidney Registry.

Generalizability of kidney transplant data in electronic health records - The Epic Cosmos database vs the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients.

Developing real-world evidence from electronic health records (EHR) is vital to advancing kidney transplantation (KT). We assessed the feasibility of studying KT using the Epic Cosmos aggregated EHR data set, which includes 274 million unique individuals cared for in 238 US health systems, by comparing it with the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR). We identified 69 418 KT recipients who underwent transplants between January 2014 and December 2022 in Cosmos (39.

Diagnosing the Recent Decrease in Utilization of Deceased Donor Kidneys.

Background: The number of deceased donor kidney transplants has been increasing and is at a record high, yet nonuse of kidneys recovered for transplantation has risen to 25.8% following circular kidney allocation system based on 250-nautical-mile circles implemented on March 15, 2021 (KAS250).

Methods: Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data, we studied all deceased donor kidneys recovered for transplant from March 15, 2019, to January 31, 2023.

Targeted Broader Sharing for Liver Continuous Distribution.

Background: In recent years, changes to US organ allocation have aimed to improve equity and accessibility across regions. The Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network plans to adopt continuous liver distribution, prioritizing candidates based on a weighted composite allocation score (CAS) incorporating proximity, ABO types, medical urgency, and pediatric priority. The Liver Committee has requested research on CAS variations that account for geographical heterogenicity.

Contemporary prevalence and practice patterns of out-of-sequence kidney allocation.

Since 2021, the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network has reported a nearly 10-fold rise in out-of-sequence (OOS) kidney allocation, generating concern and halting development of continuous distribution policies. We report contemporary (2022-2023) practice patterns in OOS allocation using Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data. We examined in sequence vs OOS donors with multivariable logistic regression and skipped vs OOS-accepting recipients with conditional logistic regression.

A competing risks model to estimate the risk of graft failure and patient death after kidney transplantation using continuous donor-recipient age combinations.

Graft failure and recipient death with functioning graft are important competing outcomes after kidney transplantation. Risk prediction models typically censor for the competing outcome thereby overestimating the cumulative incidence. The magnitude of this overestimation is not well described in real-world transplant data.

Balancing Equity and HLA Matching in Deceased-Donor Kidney Allocation with Eplet Mismatch.

Background: Prioritization of HLA antigen-level matching in the US kidney allocation system intends to improve post-transplant survival but causes racial disparities and thus has been substantially de-emphasized. Recently, molecular matching based on eplets has been found to improve risk stratification compared to antigen matching.

Methods: To assign eplets unambiguously, we utilized a cohort of 5193 individuals with high resolution allele-level HLA genotypes from the National Kidney Registry.

Removing geographic boundaries from liver allocation: A method for designing continuous distribution scores.

Background: The Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) is eliminating geographic boundaries in liver allocation, in favor of continuous distribution. Continuous distribution allocates organs via a composite allocation score (CAS): a weighted sum of attributes like medical urgency, candidate biology, and placement efficiency. The opportunity this change represents, to include new variables and features for prioritizing candidates, will require lengthy and contentious discussions to establish community consensus.

Heterogeneous donor circles for fair liver transplant allocation.

The United States (U.S.) Department of Health and Human Services is interested in increasing geographical equity in access to liver transplant.

Life expectancy without a transplant for status 1A liver transplant candidates.

Status 1A liver transplant candidates are given the highest medical priority for the allocation of deceased donor livers. Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) policy requires physicians to certify that a candidate has a life expectancy without a transplant of less than 7 days for that candidate to be given status 1A. Additionally, candidates receiving status 1A must have one of six medical conditions listed in policy.

MELD 3.0: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Updated for the Modern Era.

Background & Aims: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been established as a reliable indicator of short-term survival in patients with end-stage liver disease. The current version (MELDNa), consisting of the international normalized ratio and serum bilirubin, creatinine, and sodium, has been used to determine organ allocation priorities for liver transplantation in the United States. The objective was to optimize MELD further by taking into account additional variables and updating coefficients with contemporary data.

Correcting the sex disparity in MELD-Na.

MELD-Na appears to disadvantage women awaiting liver transplant by underestimating their mortality rate. Fixing this problem involves: (1) estimating the magnitude of this disadvantage separately for each MELD-Na, (2) designing a correction for each MELD-Na, and (3) evaluating corrections to MELD-Na using simulated allocation. Using Kaplan-Meier modeling, we calculated 90-day without-transplant survival for men and women, separately at each MELD-Na.

Liver simulated allocation model does not effectively predict organ offer decisions for pediatric liver transplant candidates.

The SRTR maintains the liver-simulated allocation model (LSAM), a tool for estimating the impact of changes to liver allocation policy. Integral to LSAM is a model that predicts the decision to accept or decline a liver for transplant. LSAM implicitly assumes these decisions are made identically for adult and pediatric liver transplant (LT) candidates, which has not been previously validated.

MELD is MELD is MELD? Transplant center-level variation in waitlist mortality for candidates with the same biological MELD.

Recently, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based liver allocation in the United States has been questioned based on concerns that waitlist mortality for a given biologic MELD (bMELD), calculated using laboratory values alone, might be higher at certain centers in certain locations across the country. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the center-level variation in bMELD-predicted mortality risk. Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) data from January 2015 to December 2019, we modeled mortality risk in 33 260 adult, first-time waitlisted candidates from 120 centers using multilevel Poisson regression, adjusting for sex, and time-varying age and bMELD.

The Precise Relationship Between Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Survival Without a Liver Transplant.

Background And Aims: Scores from the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), which are used to prioritize candidates for deceased donor livers, are widely acknowledged to be negatively correlated with the 90-day survival rate without a liver transplant. However, inconsistent and outdated estimates of survival probabilities by MELD preclude useful applications of the MELD score.

Approach And Results: Using data from all prevalent liver waitlist candidates from 2016 to 2019, we estimated 3-day, 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, and 90-day without-transplant survival probabilities (with confidence intervals) for each MELD score and status 1A.

Heterogeneous Circles for Liver Allocation.

Background And Aims: In February 2020, the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network replaced donor service area-based allocation of livers with acuity circles, a system based on three homogeneous circles around each donor hospital. This system has been criticized for neglecting to consider varying population density and proximity to coast and national borders.

Approach And Results: Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data from July 2013 to June 2017, we designed heterogeneous circles to reduce both circle size and variation in liver supply/demand ratios across transplant centers.

Allocating kidneys in optimized heterogeneous circles.

Recently, the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network approved a plan to allocate kidneys within 250-nm circles around donor hospitals. These homogeneous circles might not substantially reduce geographic differences in transplant rates because deceased donor kidney supply and demand differ across the country. Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data from 2016-2019, we used an integer program to design unique, heterogeneous circles with sizes between 100 and 500 nm that reduced supply/demand ratio variation across transplant centers.