Background: Dengue fever is an arboviral disease caused by the dengue virus (DENV). Its geographical distribution and health burden have been steadily increasing through tropical and subtropical climates in recent decades.
Methods: We developed a temperature- and precipitation-dependent mechanistic model for the global risk of dengue fever outbreaks using the basic reproduction number (R) as the metric of disease transmission risk.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines a county metric of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) community levels to inform public health measures. We find that the COVID-19 community levels vary frequently over time, which may not be optimal for decision making. Alternative metric formulations that do not compromise predictive ability are shown to reduce variability.
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