Understanding the impact of numerical solvers on inference for differential equation models.

Most ordinary differential equation (ODE) models used to describe biological or physical systems must be solved approximately using numerical methods. Perniciously, even those solvers that seem sufficiently accurate for the , i.e.

A Monte Carlo method to estimate cell population heterogeneity from cell snapshot data.

Variation is characteristic of all living systems. Laboratory techniques such as flow cytometry can probe individual cells, and, after decades of experimentation, it is clear that even members of genetically identical cell populations can exhibit differences. To understand whether variation is biologically meaningful, it is essential to discern its source.

Inference-based assessment of parameter identifiability in nonlinear biological models.

As systems approaches to the development of biological models become more mature, attention is increasingly focusing on the problem of inferring parameter values within those models from experimental data. However, particularly for nonlinear models, it is not obvious, either from inspection of the model or from the experimental data, that the inverse problem of parameter fitting will have a unique solution, or even a non-unique solution that constrains the parameters to lie within a plausible physiological range. Where parameters cannot be constrained they are termed 'unidentifiable'.

The power of evolutionary rescue is constrained by genetic load.

The risk of extinction faced by small isolated populations in changing environments can be reduced by rapid adaptation and subsequent growth to larger, less vulnerable sizes. Whether this process, called evolutionary rescue, is able to reduce extinction risk and sustain population growth over multiple generations is largely unknown. To understand the consequences of adaptive evolution as well as maladaptive processes in small isolated populations, we subjected experimental populations founded with 10 or 40 individuals to novel environments, one more favorable, and one resource poor, and either allowed evolution, or constrained it by replacing individuals one-for-one each generation with those from a large population maintained in the natal environment.

A stabilized finite element method for finite-strain three-field poroelasticity.

We construct a stabilized finite-element method to compute flow and finite-strain deformations in an incompressible poroelastic medium. We employ a three-field mixed formulation to calculate displacement, fluid flux and pressure directly and introduce a Lagrange multiplier to enforce flux boundary conditions. We use a low order approximation, namely, continuous piecewise-linear approximation for the displacements and fluid flux, and piecewise-constant approximation for the pressure.

A POSTERIORI ERROR ANALYSIS OF TWO STAGE COMPUTATION METHODS WITH APPLICATION TO EFFICIENT DISCRETIZATION AND THE PARAREAL ALGORITHM.

We consider numerical methods for initial value problems that employ a two stage approach consisting of solution on a relatively coarse discretization followed by solution on a relatively fine discretization. Examples include adaptive error control, parallel-in-time solution schemes, and efficient solution of adjoint problems for computing a posteriori error estimates. We describe a general formulation of two stage computations then perform a general a posteriori error analysis based on computable residuals and solution of an adjoint problem.

Modeling HIV-1 viral capsid nucleation by dynamical systems.

There are two stages generally recognized in the viral capsid assembly: nucleation and elongation. This paper focuses on the nucleation stage and develops mathematical models for HIV-1 viral capsid nucleation based on six-species dynamical systems. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is used for parameter fitting to estimate the association and dissociation rates from biological experiment data.

A poroelastic model coupled to a fluid network with applications in lung modelling.

We develop a lung ventilation model based on a continuum poroelastic representation of lung parenchyma that is strongly coupled to a pipe network representation of the airway tree. The continuous system of equations is discretized using a low-order stabilised finite element method. The framework is applied to a realistic lung anatomical model derived from computed tomography data and an artificially generated airway tree to model the conducting airway region.

Dynamics of prion disease transmission in mule deer.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a contagious prion disease of the deer family, has the potential to severely harm deer populations and disrupt ecosystems where deer occur in abundance. Consequently, understanding the dynamics of this emerging infectious disease, and particularly the dynamics of its transmission, has emerged as an important challenge for contemporary ecologists and wildlife managers. Although CWD is contagious among deer, the relative importance of pathways for its transmission remains unclear.