Efficient modelling of infectious diseases in wildlife: A case study of bovine tuberculosis in wild badgers.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has significant socio-economic and welfare impacts on the cattle industry in parts of the world. In the United Kingdom and Ireland, disease control is complicated by the presence of infection in wildlife, principally the European badger. Control strategies tend to be applied to whole populations, but better identification of key sources of transmission, whether individuals or groups, could help inform more efficient approaches.

Modelling timelines to elimination of sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo, accounting for possible cryptic human and animal transmission.

Background: Sleeping sickness (gambiense human African trypanosomiasis, gHAT) is a vector-borne disease targeted for global elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. There are, however, unknowns that have the potential to hinder the achievement and measurement of this goal. These include asymptomatic gHAT infections (inclusive of the potential to self-cure or harbour skin-only infections) and whether gHAT infection in animals can contribute to the transmission cycle in humans.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030.

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs.

Molecular-Scale Imaging Enables Direct Visualization of Molecular Defects and Chain Structure of Conjugated Polymers.

Conjugated polymers have become materials of choice for applications ranging from flexible optoelectronics to neuromorphic computing, but their polydispersity and tendency to aggregate pose severe challenges to their precise characterization. Here, the combination of vacuum electrospray deposition (ESD) with scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) is used to acquire, within the same experiment, assembly patterns, full mass distributions, exact sequencing, and quantification of polymerization defects. In a first step, the ESD-STM results are successfully benchmarked against NMR for low molecular mass polymers, where this technique is still applicable.

Comparison of stochastic and deterministic models for gambiense sleeping sickness at different spatial scales: A health area analysis in the DRC.

The intensification of intervention activities against the fatal vector-borne disease gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT, sleeping sickness) in the last two decades has led to a large decline in the number of annually reported cases. However, while we move closer to achieving the ambitious target of elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans, pockets of infection remain, and it becomes increasingly important to quantitatively assess if different regions are on track for elimination, and where intervention efforts should be focused. We present a previously developed stochastic mathematical model for gHAT in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and show that this same formulation is able to capture the dynamics of gHAT observed at the health area level (approximately 10,000 people).

Evaluating the effectiveness of a low fidelity, easily available simulator to teach basic arthroscopy skills to novice learners: A prospective cohort study.

Background: Arthroscopy proficiency is key to being a competent orthopaedic surgeon and acquiring arthroscopic skills takes years of exposure and diligent practice. However, today's graduating consultants have had considerably less time in operating theatre than their senior colleagues at the same point of their careers.

Objectives: To evaluate whether: (1) Students could improve their arthroscopic technique using a low fidelity arthroscopic training tool (2) students enjoyed the use of the simulator (3) If certain demographics correlate to performance on the simulator.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda.

Year-round longitudinal health surveillance in UK Olympic Summer Sport Athletes 2016-2019.

Objectives: To identify the priority injury and illness types across UK summer Olympic World Class Programme sports to inform development, implementation and evaluation of associated injury risk mitigation and management initiatives.

Methods: Four years (2016-2019) of electronic medical records of 1247 athletes from 22 sports were analysed and reported using methods based on the 2020 International Olympic Committee consensus statement for epidemiological recording and reporting.

Results: 3562 injuries and 1218 illness were recorded, accounting for 146 156 and 27 442 time-loss days.

Diagnosis of helminths depends on worm fecundity and the distribution of parasites within hosts.

Helminth transmission and morbidity are dependent on the number of mature parasites within a host; however, observing adult worms is impossible for many natural infections. An outstanding challenge is therefore relating routine diagnostics, such as faecal egg counts, to the underlying worm burden. This relationship is complicated by density-dependent fecundity (egg output per worm reduces due to crowding at high burdens) and the skewed distribution of parasites (majority of helminths aggregated in a small fraction of hosts).

Omitting age-dependent mosquito mortality in malaria models underestimates the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets.

Mathematical models of vector-borne infections, including malaria, often assume age-independent mortality rates of vectors, despite evidence that many insects senesce. In this study we present survival data on insecticide-resistant Anopheles gambiae s.l.

Revealing the Reactivity of Individual Chemical Entities in Complex Mixtures: the Chemistry Behind Bio-Oil Upgrading.

Bio-oils are precursors for biofuels but are highly corrosive necessitating further upgrading. Furthermore, bio-oil samples are highly complex and represent a broad range of chemistries. They are complex mixtures not simply because of the large number of poly-oxygenated compounds but because each composition can comprise many isomers with multiple functional groups.

Identifying regions for enhanced control of gambiense sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness, gHAT) is a disease targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030. While annual new cases are at a historical minimum, the likelihood of achieving the target is unknown. We utilised modelling to study the impacts of four strategies using currently available interventions, including active and passive screening and vector control, on disease burden and transmission across 168 endemic health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Modelling the impact of fexinidazole use on human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis is a deadly disease that has been declining in incidence since the start of the Century, primarily due to increased screening, diagnosis and treatment of infected people. The main treatment regimen currently in use requires a lumbar puncture as part of the diagnostic process to determine disease stage and hospital admission for drug administration. Fexinidazole is a new oral treatment for stage 1 and non-severe stage 2 human African trypanosomiasis.

Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape.

The persistence mechanisms of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic arboviral haemorrhagic fever, at both local and broader geographical scales have yet to be fully understood and rigorously quantified. We developed a mathematical metapopulation model describing RVF virus transmission in livestock across the four islands of the Comoros archipelago, accounting for island-specific environments and inter-island animal movements. By fitting our model in a Bayesian framework to 2004-2015 surveillance data, we estimated the importance of environmental drivers and animal movements on disease persistence, and tested the impact of different control scenarios on reducing disease burden throughout the archipelago.

Modelling to Quantify the Likelihood that Local Elimination of Transmission has Occurred Using Routine Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance Data.

Background: The gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) elimination programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) routinely collects case data through passive surveillance and active screening, with several regions reporting no cases for several years, despite being endemic in the early 2000s.

Methods: We use mathematical models fitted to longitudinal data to estimate the probability that selected administrative regions have already achieved elimination of transmission (EOT) of gHAT. We examine the impact of active screening coverage on the certainty of model estimates for transmission and therefore the role of screening in the measurement of EOT.

Medical care and first aid: an interassociation consensus framework for organised non-elite sport during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The cessation of amateur and recreational sport has had significant implications globally, impacting economic, social and health facets of population well-being. As a result, there is pressure to resume sport at all levels. The ongoing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent 'second waves' require urgent best practice guidelines to be developed to return recreational (non-elite) sports as quickly as possible while prioritising the well-being of the participants and support staff.

Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Many control programmes against neglected tropical diseases have been interrupted due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including those that rely on active case finding. In this study we focus on gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), where active screening was suspended in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) due to the pandemic. We use two independent mathematical models to predict the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission and reporting and achievement of the 2030 elimination of transmission (EOT) goal for gHAT in two moderate-risk regions of the DRC.

Still 'dairy farm fever'? A Bayesian model for leptospirosis notification data in New Zealand.

Routinely collected public health surveillance data are often partially complete, yet remain a useful source by which to monitor incidence and track progress during disease intervention. In the 1970s, leptospirosis in New Zealand (NZ) was known as 'dairy farm fever' and the disease was frequently associated with serovars Hardjo and Pomona. To reduce infection, interventions such as vaccination of dairy cattle with these two serovars was implemented.

Quantifying epidemiological drivers of gambiense human African Trypanosomiasis across the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a virulent disease declining in burden but still endemic in West and Central Africa. Although it is targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030, there remain numerous questions about the drivers of infection and how these vary geographically. In this study we focus on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounted for 84% of the global case burden in 2016, to explore changes in transmission across the country and elucidate factors which may have contributed to the persistence of disease or success of interventions in different regions.