Dynamic versus static models in cost-effectiveness analyses of anti-viral drug therapy to mitigate an influenza pandemic.

Conventional (static) models used in health economics implicitly assume that the probability of disease exposure is constant over time and unaffected by interventions. For transmissible infectious diseases this is not realistic and another class of models is required, so-called dynamic models. This study aims to examine the differences between one dynamic and one static model, estimating the effects of therapeutic treatment with antiviral (AV) drugs during an influenza pandemic in the Netherlands.

Optimal allocation of pandemic influenza vaccine depends on age, risk and timing.

The limited production capacity for vaccines raises the question what the best strategy is for allocating the vaccine to mitigate an influenza pandemic. We developed an age-structured model for spread of an influenza pandemic and validated it against observations from the Asian flu pandemic. Two strategies were evaluated: vaccination can be implemented at the start of the influenza pandemic, or vaccination will be implemented near the peak of it.

Cross-contamination during food preparation: a mechanistic model applied to chicken-borne Campylobacter.

We develop a model for bacterial cross-contamination during food preparation in the domestic kitchen and apply this to the case of Campylobacter-contaminated chicken breast. Building blocks of the model are the routines performed during food preparation, with their associated probabilities of bacterial transfer between food items and kitchen utensils. The model is used in a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of Campylobacter in the Netherlands.