Publications by authors named "Shkolnikov V"

Background: Intra-annual excess mortality is the most reliable measure of losses of lives due to short-term risk factors. The objectives of our study are (i) to estimate excess mortality across German states in the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic years 2020 and 2021 and (ii) to identify possible regional-level determinants of spatial inequality in pandemic-related excess mortality.

Methods: We use weekly mortality data series for the calculation of weekly death rates, standardized by age for each federal state of Germany.

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Background: Avoidable mortality, including both treatable and preventable deaths, is frequently used as an indicator of health system performance. Whilst the term treatable mortality refers to deaths that might be averted by medical interventions, preventable mortality generally reflects the impact of system-wide health policies. The concept of preventable mortality has not been evaluated extensively in the Russian Federation, particularly at the regional or sub-national (oblast) level.

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Estimating excess mortality is challenging. The metric depends on the expected mortality level, which can differ based on given choices, such as the method and the time series length used to estimate the baseline. However, these choices are often arbitrary, and are not subject to any sensitivity analysis.

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Excess mortality has been used to measure the impact of COVID-19 over time and across countries. But what baseline should be chosen? We propose two novel approaches: an alternative retrospective baseline derived from the lowest weekly death rates achieved in previous years and a within-year baseline based on the average of the 13 lowest weekly death rates within the same year. These baselines express normative levels of the lowest feasible target death rates.

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Background: Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular (CVD) health outcomes are well documented. While Russia has one of the highest levels of CVD mortality in the world, the literature on contemporary socio-economic inequalities in biomarker CVD risk factors is sparse. This paper aims to assess the extent and the direction of SEP inequalities in established physiological CVD risk biomarkers, and to explore the role of lifestyle factors in explaining SEP inequalities in physiological CVD risk biomarkers.

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Three-dimensional (3D) bioprinting systems serve as advanced manufacturing platform for the precise deposition of cells and biomaterials at pre-defined positions. Among the various bioprinting techniques, the drop-on-demand jetting approach facilitates deposition of pico/nanoliter droplets of cells and materials for study of cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions. Despite advances in the bioprinting systems, there is a poor understanding of how the viability of primary human cells within sub-nanoliter droplets is affected during the printing process.

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Population-based data on coronavirus disease in Russia and on the immunogenicity of the Sputnik V vaccine are sparse. In a survey of 1,080 residents of Arkhangelsk 40-75 years of age, 65% were seropositive for IgG. Fifteen percent of participants had been vaccinated; of those, 97% were seropositive.

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Background: Russia has been portrayed in media as having one of the highest death tolls due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the world. However, the precise scale of excess mortality is still unclear. We provide the first estimates of excess mortality in Russia as a whole and its regions in 2020, placing this in an international context.

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Background: There is considerable variation in mortality rates from myocardial infarction (MI) across high-income countries, some of which may be artefactual.

Methods: Time trends in mortality rates from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and MI were analysed for a set of high-income countries from the end of the 1970s. Using individual-level mortality data from Russia (2005-2017) and Norway (2005-2016), we investigated factors associated with the proportion of total IHD deaths certified as due to MI.

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Background: Hypertension is recognized as an important contributor to high cardiovascular mortality in Russia. A comprehensive analysis of data from Russian studies that measured blood pressure in population-based samples has not been previously undertaken. This study aims to identify trends and patterns in mean blood pressure and the prevalence of hypertension in Russia over the most recent 40 years.

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Objective: To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic.

Design: Time series analysis.

Setting: 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data.

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Background: Identifying individuals with low grip strength is an initial step in many operational definitions of sarcopenia. As evidence indicates that contemporaneous Russian populations may have lower mean levels of grip strength than other populations in northern Europe, we aimed to: compare grip strength in Russian and Norwegian populations by age and sex; investigate whether height, body mass index, education, smoking status, alcohol use and health status explain observed differences and; examine implications for case-finding low muscle strength.

Methods: We used harmonized cross-sectional data on grip strength and covariates for participants aged 40-69 years from the Russian Know Your Heart study (KYH) (n = 3833) and the seventh survey of the Norwegian Tromsø Study (n = 5598).

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The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing international and national statistical monitoring systems. It is striking that obtaining timely, accurate, and comparable across countries data in order to adequately respond to unexpected epidemiological threats is very challenging. The most robust and reliable approach to quantify the mortality burden due to short-term risk factors is based on estimating weekly excess deaths.

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Objective: To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data.

Design: Time series study of high income countries.

Setting: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States.

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This article addresses two unresolved methodological issues related to prior research on Russia that was based on census-unlinked data and did not account for the substantial increase in the share of death records with missing information on education. The study uses a proportional mortality analysis method relying on a case-control framework, together with a plausible imputation-based solution for the redistribution of the unknown education on death records. The new results suggest that high levels of inequality persist, but they do not support recent findings indicating that the educational gap in life expectancy has substantially widened.

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Background: In Russia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is high and the mortality gap between men and women is large. Conventional risk factors cannot explain these phenomena. Ventricular arrhythmia (VA) is an important contributor to the death toll in community-based populations.

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The COVID-19 pandemic stimulated the interest of scientists, decision makers and the general public in short-term mortality fluctuations caused by epidemics and other natural or man-made disasters. To address this interest and provide a basis for further research, in May 2020, the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series was launched as a new section of the Human Mortality Database. At present, this unique data resource provides weekly mortality death counts and rates by age and sex for 38 countries and regions.

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Background: The study aims at identifying long-term trends and patterns of current smoking by age, gender, and education in Russia, including the most recent period from 2008 during which tobacco control policies were implemented, and to estimate the impact on mortality of any reductions in prevalence. We present an in-depth analysis based on an unprecedentedly large array of survey data.

Methods: We examined pooled micro-data on smoking from 17 rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Study of 1996-2016, 11 other surveys conducted in Russia in 1975-2017, and two comparator surveys from England and the USA.

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Objective: To examine the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF), its impacts on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality, and the associations between AF and inflammatory and serum biomarkers in a population-based sample of Muscovites.

Methods: The study is a secondary analysis of data from the Stress, Aging and Health in Russia (SAHR) survey that includes information on 1800 individuals with an average age of 68.5 years at baseline, and on their subsequent mortality during 7.

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Introduction And Aims: In the 1990s, a strong inverse relationship between life expectancy (LE) in Russia and mortality from alcohol poisoning was observed. This association is remarkable as this cause accounts for less than 2% of deaths each year. It can be explained by treating the alcohol poisoning mortality as the best available measure in Russia of the population prevalence of harmful drinking in any year which in turn associated with mortality from a wide range of causes.

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Background: Since 2010, the rate of improvement in life expectancy in the UK has slowed. We aimed to put this trend in the context of changes over the long term and in relation to a group of other high-income countries.

Methods: We compared sex-specific trends in life expectancy since 1970 and age-specific mortality in England and Wales with median values for 22 high-income countries (in western Europe, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, and the USA).

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Background: Prior studies on spatial inequalities in mortality in Russia were restricted to the highest level of administrative division, ignoring variations within the regions. Using mortality data for 2239 districts, this study is the first analysis to capture the scale of the mortality divide at a more detailed level.

Methods: Age-standardised death rates are calculated using aggregated deaths for 2008-2012 and population exposures from the 2010 census.

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